Debt Issues

For personal investment, some like to use debt, some avoid using debt. There are no right or wrong on this matter. To me, is all depend on which asset class you invest. Using debt in stock investing is very risky, but in property investment it is a leverage game. Give an example below, see which camp you prefer.

Case 1:
Cash = 30K
Debt = Nil

Case 2:
Cash = 30K
Asset = 100K
Debt = 100K

Case 3:
Cash + asset = 130K
Debt = 100K

Case 4:
Cash + Asset = 530K
Debt = 500K

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All the 4 cases above, you net worth are the same, 30K only.

The tricky issue here is if your able to turn debt to "self financing" with surplus; then how we going to treat or classify this debt?

Are Case 1 is wealthier than Case 4??
Sure Case 4 is richer, althought the net worth is still the same.

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In stock market, some of the listed companies like IOI and QL, are using debt to grow their business. So are this type of stock worth investing?

Personally I dont like this group of stocks as investing in stock market is already high risk investment. Better not to compound your risk.

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In property investing, is also dont compound your leverage by buying cash depleting "asset".

Buy and hold is dead?

Buy and hold is dead. I heard people are talking like this a few months back. My opinion is this may be right if you taking a short term perspective. At the current market state, is more easy to trade rather than buy then hold for a long period to realise the "intrinsic value" or "fair value". If you apply trading strategy for last few months, you may sit on handsome profit. People tend to talk louder when they are making good profit. I also have to admit that trading is more appropriate currently. If you traded correctly, making >20% is not a mammoth task, and you are on par with all the investing gurus. There are no reason not to shout about. I have seen enough people or so called "investor" huhaa at bull market but eventually disappear after bear market.

Investing in stock market is a long term business. To survive or making money in stock market is not how much you made in this year alone but consistency of profit you make year after year. All the gurus build their wealth and reputation due to they had achieved a long history of consistent above average profit. Any given year there are sure some "smart alec" is making more money then these gurus, but where are they?

The gurus must sure have some strategy to out last the bull and bear market that is unavoidable. And i am sure that their strategy is not short term oriented, since they are building wealth and furtune over a long duration. I am not against trading, but you have to limit your exposure. Is fine to trade 10-20% of your capital, but dont forget you must also ready for long term cycle of stock market.

To trade or not to trade? Is up to you. Frankly, i spend lesser time in stock market for last couple of months. The reasons are is stock market is high although is not forming bubble yet (my opinion. Contrary to year 2008 the market was traded above 1400. i sold most of my stock) and good buy would not appear now. The other reason is i spend more time in property investment.

Streamline of Portfolio....again

I have streamlined again my stock portfolio. My core holding reduce to Hartalega, Public Bank and Allianz. All my Topglove has been converted to Hartalega and Public Bank. The reasons i did so are nitrile glove is cheaper than latex glove, there may be foundamental change of latex glove producer because high raw latex price. It look like latex glove going to lose its edge. I dont foresee price of commodities going to drop in the offing. This going to hurt latex producers, especially players are not competitive in their price. Although Topglove is still the low cost producer of latex glove, and nitrile glove capacity is still unable to eat big market share from latex glove, but over time it will. Can you imagine that a premium product (nitrile glove) is selling cheaper than non-premium product (latex glove), what going to happen? Hartalega going to enjoy the wide profit margin and demand increase. I consider Hartalega is "able and lucky" as describe by Phlip Fisher. Bullish on it.

In early of year 2009, i converted my LPI to Hartalega. After that both also flying high. However as on today, net profit of Hartalega is more than LPI. Is a matter of time the market capital of Hartalega will outpace LPI. The distintive difference between the two is LPI paying good dividend, Hartalega is growing faster. Which one you prefer is depend on which camp you in.

For same sector comparison, Allianz is making comparative net profit as to LPI, however it is trade at steep discount to LPI. The market capital of Allianz (inclusive if Allianz PA) is aroung 1.4 billion but the market capital of LPI is around 2.5 billion. LPI is paying good dividend but Allianz is going to pay good dividend after settlement of loan from parent company. Again it depend on which you in. (P/S: Allianz is a low liquidity stock)

As for Public Bank, i knew it not going to fly but it still able to grow and paying good dividend. Again is balancing value and growth stock. It still not trading at the reasonable prospective PE (i peg at 16) of a well run business.

Underperform - Year 2010

Is about 2 months i did not update this blog. I am not out of the market but less attention. I did make some adjustment to my portfolio, this is due to i need more capital for my property investment. My holding currently just consist of Public Bank, Hartalega, Top Glove and Allianz. I am still holding stocks consist of value and growth. It look like i am going to underperform the market for the 1st time in 10years since 2000, but it did not bother me at all. I am not chasing the short term performance. I rather to stick to my strategy and investing method which has beaten the market for a long duration. I am looking at long term competitive advantages of my holdings not the short term share price fluctuation. As long as i am satisfied with their competitive edges i will hold them as long as i could. I am long enough in the stock market, i knew how to beat it in long run.

For property investment i just bought my 2nd and 3rd property with friend. One is for rental income and the other one is for capital appreciation. I prefer not to talk too much on property since i am still learning, limited sucessful case able to share. Furthermore, there is a debate on property bubble or property super cycle.

Allianz 的 appraisal change

Allianz，最近买入了这间公司。有朋友问说，它也不怎么样 undervalue，underwriting 也不是非常出色，dividend 也很低，怎样看都不是很值得？？

保险公司是我一路以来都有留意的行业。打从10 年前看了评述 warren buffett 的书后，就买了 P＆O 和 LPI，也曾买过 Kurnia Asia。亏过也赚过。这行业的重点是管理层，只有好的管理层才能创造价值。

从cimb 那里买入普险业务后，跟母公司借了 490 Mil。问题也从这里开始，虽然是零利息的贷款。还有就是 bank negara 对资本要求的提高。为了解决这问题， Allianz 通过优先股筹了 611 mil。

那又有什么卖点呢？是 appraisal change。

通过优先股，它解决跟母公司的贷款 和 bank negara 对资本要求。从现在开始，它的盈利都可派发给股东。还有它的管理层也不差，形象会改变！

情绪切入法

Behavioral finance 华语我不知如何翻译，在佳礼的 Jeangrey网友 称它为情绪切入法。这东东的佼佼者是 bill miller 和 charlie munger。在美国 subprime 发生之前，bill miller 在这方面是非常出色的。

bill miller 在还未成为 fund manager 之前是读心理学的，在成为 fund manager 后，他把心理学的人性的弱点或盲点用在投资。在1985年开始，他就研究 warren buffett，benjamin graham 和 philip fisher 的学说，学的是 value investing （价值投资）。在他投资生涯的初期，多数投资在 old economy 的行业如银行和零售。在90年代中期开始，他把 value investing 用在科技行业上，买的公司有 Dell，AT＆T 等等，在2000年的科技泡沫前减持科技股。他的看法是 value investing 也可以用在这些科技股上。他的专长是研究投资大众对某些公司或行业有没有 mis－perception，而造成股价的 mis－price。

N年前，当 google 要上市的时候，他就马上成立了一个小组来研究 google。结果他得到的结论是市场或投资大众严重的对 google 不了解，也造就了 google 当时的 IPO 的 book building 被低估，他的平均买价是少过 100 美元。事后证明他的眼光独到，也赚了大钱。

他另外的观点有如 amazon 的 profit margin 和 Borders 同样是 8％ 是否也存在着 mis－perception 等等........

其实 behavioral finance 早在 benjamin graham 的 ＜inteligent investor＞ 一书出现，里面的 fear ＆ greed 也就是情绪切入法的一环。

当 Jeangrey 在两年前的佳礼发表，造成论坛的一小震荡，原因不外是人们没有听过，内心的求知欲望造成羡慕，也不停的猜测，不知觉中也掉入 behavioral finance 里的 mis－perception。我曾在佳礼说过 情绪切入法 只是 value－added，如果独立的在用会使你走入猜测股市短期的波动，那你就是在投机！！

我说它是 value added，是因为前提是你要会用 value investing！不然你会越踩越深，掉入别人或自己的情绪里。我也对佳礼的一些网友说，这情绪切入法不适合他们，因为他们的价值投资的基础不强，但听得进去的又有几个呢？

谁又会承认自己的基础不强呢？这也是人性的盲点！！！

新投资或加码

投资股票常常会遇到短期的投机（或投资）机会，这些机会不外是 IPO， M＆A，某些股票突然被压卖，贴士，他人介绍，突然发现某股被严重低估，某些行业股被抄......等等。

以我的过去经验，这些短期的获利（有时候还要亏）都比不上你继续持有或再加码你现在已有的股票。有时候朋友有叫我去看看某些股票，原因通常都是看起来瞒吸引人的，应该被低估，应该有可能被市场重估等等。我一般的回答都是买股票是不需要攒牛角尖的，你所谓的股票有没有比 hartalega，topglove， public bank 好？ 有没有比 hartalega 低估？ 成长有没有比 hartalega 和 topglove 高？以什么 basis 市场重估你讲的股票？

市场重估某股票（或 trade 在更高的PE）一般上只有两个原因：－
1. 高成长的公司
2. 给高股息的公司

看看 hartalega，它现在是 trade 在 prospective PE 10倍以下，高成长，cash flow 又强，市场重估的机会是不是更高呢？？

要买其他股票是别忘了跟你已拥有了的股票比一比，大部分时候加码比买新投资更好！前提是你拥有的已是一流的公司.

风险和质量

常常都会被问到如此的问题，为什么要买 topglove 和 hartalega，不买 supermax， kossan，adventa 或 latexx呢？为什么要买 public bank 和cimb， 而不买 ammb， hongleong bank 呢？这些比较起来较便宜也较值得！

如果投资股票是单单这样，那为什么还有大把人还在问如何长期在股市里赚钱呢？？ 里面牵涉到了风险和质量的东东。

风险，简单来说所有的数字包括 PE，NTA，Discounted Cashflow， margin of safety，Dividend yeild， balance sheets，cash flow statement，income statement 都不能有效的减低风险。有人说投资股票最重要的就是管理好你的风险，我很赞成这说法。看过不少人对这些数字了如指掌，不过还赚不到钱，分分钟还亏钱。很多人买股票的首要考量或出发点就是这股票可以上到多少钱，以这价钱买回酬有几多巴仙？我的出发点通常都是想想买这股票风险有多低，再来看它的价钱。

还有就是大把人认为价值投资重点是 margin of safety，然而它的中心点却是质量 （qualitative）。它包括如下：－


1. 管理层的素质 （competency of the management）
2. 营利的素质 （quality of profit）
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy

Time the Market and Strategy

Seem like there is a lot of interest on the topic of time the market and investing strategy, please drop your comment at this post. The old post is too long to read already.

配合策略

人们一直在猜到底是不是希臘财务危机造成全球金融市场动荡不停，是不是第二波的金融危机又来侵袭，没有人知道答案。不过现今的经济状况应该会比2008年好和稳定，没有信心的问题。

市场会不会再跌，没有人知道，我当然也不知道。以其在想市场会不会再跌，不如问问自己准备好了没？子弹准备了吗？目标锁定了没？

我的看法是这一次不会比2008年严重，除非中国那边也出现问题，所以策略是不需要太高的现金在手。配合策略，减持一点股票，等待机会。加上大马也没什么跌（几时都是慢半拍），还有也不一定要买大马的股票。看看后续如何再决定也不迟。

Timed the Market

A lot of Warren Buffett followers argue that timing to buy stock is less important as compared to buying under value stock. According to this group of investors, they are prepared to ride through the ups and downs of the market. If a stock is brilliant, they don't mind to practice buy and hold strategy. To them finding a good stock is more fruitful as compared to trying to time market entry.

I am a big fan of Warren Buffett. Did Warren Buffett timed the market? I had asked myself this question previously. My conclusion is Warren Buffett did timed the market. He always bought stocks during down turn and practice buy and hold for long term investment afterward. So people saying Warren Buffet did not timed the market is not right. The different is he only timed the market during crisis. He seldom time for a minor correction because short term up and down is unpredictable. However major correction is unavoidable, that is why he is prepared with huge cash pile for big buy during crisis. He bought Washington Post in year 1974, Coca-cola in 1988 and most recent GE and Goldman Sachs in 2008. If he did not time the market then why he always purchased stock at downtime?

I did write a post regarding a sizable correction every 3-5 years and a major correction every 10-12 years. So should we take advantage of it or ignore it totally??

I sold 70% of my stocks at mid year of 2008 and start buying back from end 2008 until early 2009. Just purely luck. Good timing did help a lot.

Don't forget that we, small investor, don't have constant big cash flow to invest as compared to Warren Buffett. Your monthly saving might be negligible compared to your portfolio, how you going to rely on that? To me, portfolio management and applying appropriate strategy are very important. Especially when your portfolio is already sizable.

Therefore, don't time the "kacang putih" drop, but time for significant correction. Normal day just hold on to your good quality stock, preferred growth stocks or growing stock (mid teen is acceptable) with good dividend.

Value investing did not mean that you cannot time the market.

I wrote this because a question posted to me.

Glove Industry

Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.

A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-

1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.

2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.

3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.

4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.

I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.

两个知讯

经常放工回家的时候都会听 988 的 6点财经短讯，.....今天综合指数报 1300点，上升股有 275支，下跌股有 280支，380支股平盘，560支股没有交易......哼我到底有没有听错，有五百多支股没有交易？？ 现在是什么行情了，已是1300点了还有那么多股没有交易？

最近 bursa malaysia 刚刚一些交易数据，本地机构投资公司的交易共占了总交易量的 55％，外国基金占了25％，而本地散户只有15％。

看了以上两个知讯，你有何感想？

我的解读，
1. 股票流动量的确是个问题，可以说只有大概 20％ 的股票是 efficient罢了，不要以为买了冷门的 ＂价值股＂就一定会有钱赚。

2. 没有机构投资公司留意的股票是不会上的，尤其是小资本的公司，本地加上外国的机构投资公司已经占乐 80％ 的交易了。

high probability （高可能性）

之前我说了high certainty （高确定性），现在要谈谈 high probability （高可能性）。因为高确定性的投资机会不会常出现，你可能等了一整年都没有一次机会。退求其次，高可能性，也是不错的方法。

有研究显示，长期买低 PE 的股票也可以赚钱，这显然这一类的股票不乏追随者。但这结论太过草率了，因为也有大把低 PE 但赚不到钱的股票。所以我们也应该 study 一下到底是那一些原因是 低PE，然后又会上的股票。一般说来，原因不外以下几个：－

1. 公司的盈利可以成长
2. 可以接受的管理层
3. 可以接受的 balance sheet 和 cashflow

今天说说刚刚上市 JCY，因为 book building 的价钱定在 RM1.60，散户的买价只有 RM1.52。它预测今年的盈利有大概 300mil，EPS 有 16仙，所以 PE 大概是 10。因为 IPO 有抽到，也开始有问问在 western digital 工作的朋友。结论是说它的生意模式就是 volume game，就好象 topglove，low cost producer win the game，竞争者要代替它也不容易。多年来它还可以成长，又开始 bid samsung 和 hitacii 的和约，符合以上几点。本来想赚一点水钱就卖的，现在决定不卖。

原因就是有高可能性会有钱赚。

业绩数一数

又过了业绩报告的季节，是时候评估下自己有投资的公司或有留意的公司。

表现出色的有 CIMB，Hartalega，LPI 和 Allianz 。平平稳稳的有 PBB，Aeon。差强人意的有 Digi 和 Jobstreet。还没有公布业绩的有 PPB，Tanjong 和 Topglove。开始留意的有 JCY 和 F＆N。

cimb 强者归来，打从 2003年上市以来，买卖了三次，虽然有钱赚，但看起来，卖掉它都是错的选择。第一次卖是不相信 nazir razak 可以改变 联昌银行（BCB），第二次卖是为了增持现金 ，第三次卖是因为已经赚了。不得不相信 nazir razak 的能力和关系。

Hartalega 表现一流，未来应该可以强劲成长，股息也在增加中。产品创新 （innovation）和 生产技术不断改进。如果无意外现在的七塊多也不算贵。

LPI，也是买卖了三次，卖掉它是错的选择。适度的成长和高股息提供了不错的回酬。唯一担心的是成也郑鸿标，败也郑鸿标。如果没有了 public bank 的 platform 和支持，它是不是可以继续成长？？

Allianz 业绩出色，但现金流不是很好股息也不高，要赚钱真的要有耐心。

Public Bank 我的 core holding， 也是坚持价值投资的支柱。多年来它未成让我失望，会买卖，但长期买会多过卖。

Aeon 成长得看经济的大环境，股票大跌时要买的没轮到它，股票大上时要买的也没轮到它，还是忘记它吧！

Digi 已不在成长了，股息还不赖，看看 ３G 是否可以帮助它成长，不然就留给喜欢高股息的投资者吧！

Jobstreet 虽然有竞争能力和很好的 balance sheet，但它还是经济循环股，加上 monster 的入境，赚幅应该会继续的跌，也要看经济的大环境。

今年有什么策略？

朋友长问今年有什么策略？说真的我还想不道有什么策略。以现在的股市我不敢在加码，也没有个别公司特别有兴趣。想了想，还是增加现金的部分，所以卖了一点点的 PBB 和 PB gold account 的黄金。

新年其间看了不少报章里一些人包过分析员和风水师对今年的看法，大致上结论只有两个：－

1. 今年的股市会特别波动，不会像 2009 年一样大起

2. 今年选股要特别小心，因为整体股市不会全部一起大涨

老实说以上的结论根本不是什么结论，相似客套话多一点。股市是不会说今年比较波动，去年波动不多，明年股市会较平稳的?股市唯一不变的就是波动，这是不变的原则。Ben Graham 说的 投资者应该心理上和金钱上准备好来面对市场的波动，这就是我们应该做的事。熊市有什么可怕？可怕的是你没有准备好。牛市也不必怕错过，你已拥有不错的股票来享受。

为什么只要今年选股要特别小心？？ 是不是明年就可以随便买呢？？ 买股几时都要优先考虑到素质 （qualitative），尤其是在大马，烂苹果太多了。最好是符合 philip fisher 说的 有素质的成长股。

PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

这篇可能是我今年的重要发表之一，送红包。

每一个有买股票的人都常听到什么是PE。关于 PE，有些人认为它很好用，有些人却认为它不行不准。那到底是谁是谁非呢？

在股票论坛和看了别人的部落阁不短的时间，但却不曾看过有人真正把 PE 解释的或如何利用它说个明白。其实 PE 本身并没有问题，问题是在用的人。人通常都是一样的，赚钱的就说它好用，亏钱的就说它没有用。PE 就好象是你做 modeling 一样，都是 model to ideal situation （假设完美的前提下）。

那么完美的前提又是什么东东呢？
1. 假设公司没有债务
2. 假设公司的盈利都是有素质的 （quality of profit）
3. 假设公司的管理层都是能干的 （competent management）
4. 假设公司把盈利再投资或归还给股东
5. 假设公司的盈利就是 cash flow （profit = cash flow）
6. 等等....

看了以上，你还会认为每一间公司的 PE 是＂应该＂一样的吗？？

我曾经说过，要用 PE 你一定要 bench marking，比方说一流的公司 PE ＂应该＂是 14－16，二流的是 10－13，三流的 8－9，如此类推。单单是 PE 还不够，可以加上 bench marking 就不错，如果再加 appraisal 会更好。

为什么说要再加 appraisal 呢？ 你必须了解股票市场都会 appraise 高成长 和 给高股息 的股票比较高的 PE （16－22）。如果你买的公司 已经 trade 在 PE 20 了，不过它还可以继续高成长，那你根本不应该卖。如果高成长的公司 trade 在 PE 16 以下，那是不是应该买呢？？ 几年钱 VADS 已 trade 在 PE 16 了，了解这间公司后我还是照买，两年后上了100％。

简单来说是 PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

股票的回酬

以下是我两年前在佳礼的一发表

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很多投资者对如何在股市里赚钱，都只有模糊的了解。有些人花了几年的摸索，跌跌幢幢，还在找出路。

不明白的问－为什么我买的股票不会上？为什么我买的股票 PE 那么低，还不赚钱呢？几年来，它的 PE 还是一样的呢？

为什么我买的股票 dividend yield 那么高，还高过 FD，但股价还是不会上的？

为什么我买的股票，每一年的盈利还在成长，但股价也是一般罢了？？

相信很多人都会面对以上的情况，然后自问－我都跟完那些投资大师所写的了，为什么还不能赚钱？？ 用我喜欢说的一句话 － 投资如果只是那样，那又何难呢？？



股票的回酬，不外是以下三点。

1. dividend yield （股息）
相信我们都长听到 高股息 （high dividend yield stock）的股票。名字都已告诉你了，你的回酬只是股息，你偏不信，买了还希望股价会上。这些公司有 BAT，GUINESS，BTOTO，NESTLE 等等。但这些公司的 cash flow 很强，公司不会有问题，也有能力继续给高股息。重点是 cash flow。

2. 成长 （growth）
通常高成长股的 PE 会比较高，原因是它的高 PE 会因为高成长而迅速的降低。但如果 PE 过高，短期里你不会什么赚钱，因为它需要几年的高成长来拉低它的 PE（也就是会浪费几年）。最好是不要 valued 一间公司超过 PE 16。另外要注意的是它的盈利是否可以在未来的几年继续成长，如果不能，它的 PE 是不会继续高持的。如果你买的 PE 是 ＂合理＂的，那你赚的也就是未来的成长。如果你买的 PE 是 ＂被低估＂的，那你赚的也就是多过未来的成长。

3. PEG 或 PE expansion
也就是说它的 PE 是被低估了，这也是最难的问题。何为低估？何为高估？因为它是主观的，关系到了你的投资信念 （investing believe），比较基石 （bench marking），评估 （appraisal）等等。简单来说你相信某股票的 PE 是被低估了,迟早会回到＂合理＂的 PE。比如说以 public bank 那样一流的公司，PE 应该是 16，但现在只有 PE 10，它是被低估了。所以你一定要 bench marking，比如说一流的公司 PE 是 14-16，二流的是 10-13，三流的是 10 以下。



身为投资者，我们应该如何取舍呢？？？ 这犹如地上有一张 10 块 跟 一张 100 块，你要拾那一张？？

所以当我们投资时，必须看完以上三点。

1.cash flow
有成长，被＂低估＂，没有 cash flow 不行。

2.成长
有 cash flow，没有成长，回酬只有 dividend yield, 股价不会上.

3. PEG
有成长，有 cash flow，PEG 可以使你事半功倍。

Multi Baggers 2

Multi baggers 一般上多数是成长股。我曾在佳礼说过一间公司可以长时间的在成长通常只有两大因素：－

1. 行业的缘故 － 也就是成长的行业

2. 管理层 － 只有能干的管理层才可以帮助公司继续成长

如果你可以找到符合以上两个因素的公司，加上高确定性和股价还上到成长股的价钱，你唯一可以作的就是 bet big on it。

在 bursa malaysia 有大把的公司都是不能长时间成长的，它们肯定不是 Multi baggers。看了不少人喜欢用 低PE，NTA 和 net working capital 来投资这一类的公司，我不敢说他们的投资方法错，因为这些都是普通的价值投资法，也是书本教的。也好，少了很多竞争者来买同一样的股票。

不过在 bursa malaysia 也有一些公司不属于高成长的行业但却有非常能干的管理层，举手拈来的有 public bank， cimb， LPI， tanjong 等等，这些公司多年以来都能稳健成长。加上有不错的股息，这一类也值得投资。

运气好和能干 & 行业优势

最近的股票市场让我们看到了独一枝秀的手套股，这到底是这行业被抄上来呢，还是这行业受到更多投资者的认同呢？我的看法是后者可能性较高，当然也不排除有浑水摸鱼基本面次级的股票。最好的选择还是这行业的佼佼者 － topglove 和 hartalega。

我说过自己受 philip fisher 的影响较大，大师说一般上行业的 built in （以身俱来）的优势比个别公司的优势来得重要。手套业多年来稳健成长，又可以把成本转嫁给客户，不是每一个行业都拥有这些优势，显然这不简单。因为有买手套股，有朋友说我又赚危机（H１N１）钱，这让我联想到大师说的成功的公司通常都是：

１.fortunate and able （运气好和能干）
２.fortunate because they are able （运气好因为它们能干）

那你认为你买的公司是第一种还是第二，还是两个都不是？若是两个都不是，那么你只是运气好！

投资股票何尝不是这样，没有投资者可以长期好运气。在２００６和２００７年，股市一片大好，赚钱较容易。看到不少投资者因此而沾沾自喜，更有些把不是很正确的方法和理论视为理所当然。当然金融危机后，管理不当的公司首当其冲，立不住脚的投资法显得无助。

你投资的公司是否拥有行业优势？ 自己想清楚！
行业优势会使你事半功倍！！