Friday, June 11, 2010

风险和质量

常常都会被问到如此的问题,为什么要买 topglove 和 hartalega,不买 supermax, kossan,adventa 或 latexx呢?为什么要买 public bank 和cimb, 而不买 ammb, hongleong bank 呢?这些比较起来较便宜也较值得!

如果投资股票是单单这样,那为什么还有大把人还在问如何长期在股市里赚钱呢?? 里面牵涉到了风险和质量的东东。

风险,简单来说所有的数字包括 PE,NTA,Discounted Cashflow, margin of safety,Dividend yeild, balance sheets,cash flow statement,income statement 都不能有效的减低风险。有人说投资股票最重要的就是管理好你的风险,我很赞成这说法。看过不少人对这些数字了如指掌,不过还赚不到钱,分分钟还亏钱。很多人买股票的首要考量或出发点就是这股票可以上到多少钱,以这价钱买回酬有几多巴仙?我的出发点通常都是想想买这股票风险有多低,再来看它的价钱。

还有就是大把人认为价值投资重点是 margin of safety,然而它的中心点却是质量 (qualitative)。它包括如下:-


1. 管理层的素质 (competency of the management)
2. 营利的素质 (quality of profit)
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy

4 comments:

  1. Good post. It is easy to spot a good company with wonderful numbers on the annual report. Anyone with some knowledge in mathematics and accounting could do it. The numbers alone should not be the only factor when making investing decisions . Wonderful numbers on the annual report could turn into rubbish if the qualitative factors are weak.

    That is why investing, not punting, is not just a simple research on the PE, NTA, DCF etc. However, determining the qualitative edge of a company is a very tricky move. You could be cheated by a product which you really like. You could be blind folded by a management which seems full of integrity. You could also be deceived by the past performance of the company's earnings. (past performance does not indicate future performance) Many people did average in assessing the qualitative factors of a company because they are biased. It is a very subjective thing and one must be as objective as possible in doing it.

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  2. Too long so I post it here. http://sgbuaya.blogspot.com/2010/06/risk-and-quality-from-2nd-brother.html

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  3. good...feel free visit my blog.. http://myinvest89.blogspot.com

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