Monday, March 15, 2010

high probability (高可能性)

之前我说了high certainty (高确定性),现在要谈谈 high probability (高可能性)。因为高确定性的投资机会不会常出现,你可能等了一整年都没有一次机会。退求其次,高可能性,也是不错的方法。

有研究显示,长期买低 PE 的股票也可以赚钱,这显然这一类的股票不乏追随者。但这结论太过草率了,因为也有大把低 PE 但赚不到钱的股票。所以我们也应该 study 一下到底是那一些原因是 低PE,然后又会上的股票。一般说来,原因不外以下几个:-

1. 公司的盈利可以成长
2. 可以接受的管理层
3. 可以接受的 balance sheet 和 cashflow

今天说说刚刚上市 JCY,因为 book building 的价钱定在 RM1.60,散户的买价只有 RM1.52。它预测今年的盈利有大概 300mil,EPS 有 16仙,所以 PE 大概是 10。因为 IPO 有抽到,也开始有问问在 western digital 工作的朋友。结论是说它的生意模式就是 volume game,就好象 topglove,low cost producer win the game,竞争者要代替它也不容易。多年来它还可以成长,又开始 bid samsung 和 hitacii 的和约,符合以上几点。本来想赚一点水钱就卖的,现在决定不卖。



  1. Hi 2nd Brother, how you think about Tanjong new full year report? Although this year earning good but it doesn't depend on its business growth. Do you think it still got potential to grow in next few year? Will you worry Ananda will privatize it?

  2. retnuoc, Tanjong full year profit is slightly below my expectation. But overall it is still okay. If you read my previous postings carefully, i had mentioned that a company normally can because of that company is in a grow industry or due to action of the management. Apparently, Tanjong fall on the second group. Over the years, Tanjong growth is the result from the action of the management. So if you bought this company, you are betting on their management. I start following this company 10 years ago, what i can say is you cannot expect abnormal grow rate. I believed that it still able to growth slightly more that 10% yearly. Therefore, you also cannot expect it share able to go up substantially. Your return will be a moderate increase in share price and dividend, unless there is a change of the appraisal from investing public. It mean that investor willing to pay a higher PE for it, maybe to PE 14, then you are able to make more money.

    In my investing life, i had go thru' the privatization of Public Finance, Arab Malaysia Finance, CIMB, Malakoff and VADS. The only offer that i not agree is the Malakoff deal. If AK willing to pay good price, i am okay with it. Sometime it provide you a exit strategy. 2 years ago the privatization of VADS happen at the very good timing, it provide me a very good chance to buy stock cheap (after Lehman Brothers).

  3. Hi 2ndbrother, really thanks for you sharing. So Tanjong growth is mainly due to better management and cost cutting.

    When can we have your next investment article? :)