Friday, January 15, 2010

股票的回酬

以下是我两年前在佳礼的一发表

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很多投资者对如何在股市里赚钱,都只有模糊的了解。有些人花了几年的摸索,跌跌幢幢,还在找出路。

不明白的问-为什么我买的股票不会上?为什么我买的股票 PE 那么低,还不赚钱呢?几年来,它的 PE 还是一样的呢?

为什么我买的股票 dividend yield 那么高,还高过 FD,但股价还是不会上的?

为什么我买的股票,每一年的盈利还在成长,但股价也是一般罢了??

相信很多人都会面对以上的情况,然后自问-我都跟完那些投资大师所写的了,为什么还不能赚钱?? 用我喜欢说的一句话 - 投资如果只是那样,那又何难呢??



股票的回酬,不外是以下三点。

1. dividend yield (股息)
相信我们都长听到 高股息 (high dividend yield stock)的股票。名字都已告诉你了,你的回酬只是股息,你偏不信,买了还希望股价会上。这些公司有 BAT,GUINESS,BTOTO,NESTLE 等等。但这些公司的 cash flow 很强,公司不会有问题,也有能力继续给高股息。重点是 cash flow。

2. 成长 (growth)
通常高成长股的 PE 会比较高,原因是它的高 PE 会因为高成长而迅速的降低。但如果 PE 过高,短期里你不会什么赚钱,因为它需要几年的高成长来拉低它的 PE(也就是会浪费几年)。最好是不要 valued 一间公司超过 PE 16。另外要注意的是它的盈利是否可以在未来的几年继续成长,如果不能,它的 PE 是不会继续高持的。如果你买的 PE 是 "合理"的,那你赚的也就是未来的成长。如果你买的 PE 是 "被低估"的,那你赚的也就是多过未来的成长。

3. PEG 或 PE expansion
也就是说它的 PE 是被低估了,这也是最难的问题。何为低估?何为高估?因为它是主观的,关系到了你的投资信念 (investing believe),比较基石 (bench marking),评估 (appraisal)等等。简单来说你相信某股票的 PE 是被低估了,迟早会回到"合理"的 PE。比如说以 public bank 那样一流的公司,PE 应该是 16,但现在只有 PE 10,它是被低估了。所以你一定要 bench marking,比如说一流的公司 PE 是 14-16,二流的是 10-13,三流的是 10 以下。



身为投资者,我们应该如何取舍呢??? 这犹如地上有一张 10 块 跟 一张 100 块,你要拾那一张??

所以当我们投资时,必须看完以上三点。

1.cash flow
有成长,被"低估",没有 cash flow 不行。

2.成长
有 cash flow,没有成长,回酬只有 dividend yield, 股价不会上.

3. PEG
有成长,有 cash flow,PEG 可以使你事半功倍。

5 comments:

  1. 2.成长
    有 cash flow,没有成长,回酬只有 dividend yield, 股价不会上.

    it this wrong?? this shd be for 1.cash flow, right?

    ReplyDelete
  2. If a company is only able to generate cash flow (i.e. BTOTO, BAT), but with no growth prospect (unable to grow in profit) the only return you can expect is dividend nothing else.

    Over long term only those company can achieve profit grow warranted rise in the share prices. You can ride on the price appreciation provided you invested in growth company.

    So, a company merely generate cash flow is insufficient, it also must able to generate higher cash flow (or higher profit) thru' grow.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi 2ndbrother, so should PBBANK consider a company with both growth and cash flow? I am currently looking at P.I.E, I think it seem like a company with strong cash flow with growth. May I have your opinion on this? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. retnuoc,

    PBBank still growing at slower pace (10-15%) and also good cash flow.

    PIE, i cannot figure out how it going to grow and compete with other player from others countries. If i really cannot, i wont invest. I noticed ICAP like it very much but it not within by circle of competence. I dont know where is my risk, better avoid.

    Sometime, good cash flow + growth also cannot reduce your risk.

    ReplyDelete