Saturday, August 29, 2009

margin of safety

所谓的安全边际,很多人受了 ben graham 和 warren buffett 的影响,说自己买股票时很注重 margin of safety。但你如果问他什么是margin of safety,他们就会解释说如果某个股票是值得(内在价值)一塊,你若用五角钱买,那你就有50%的,就这样简单。

真的是那么简单吗?margin of safety 就只是这些 quantify-able (可以算得出的)的东东而已??

如果你的 margin of safety 的定义包括以下(不可以算得出的)会不会更好一点呢??
1. 管理层的素质 (competency of the management)
2. 营利的素质 (quality of profit)
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy

我的看法是这些 non-quantify-able 的东东也是你的 margin of safety,一般上这些还比你算得出的来的重要。


  1. 恭喜secondbrother兄新blog开张。
    很同意。。intangible方面的margin of safety..

  2. No doubt the importance of the intangible aspects of a company as mentioned above. However, how does one evaluate such aspects or it is purely personal judgement on those things? What is the best way to evaluate such aspects? any possiblity to tag a "figure" on each of the aspect?

  3. Tiger, the bench marking method is the best way to figure out this issue.