Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Stock Pick 2013 & Strategy

Things have been stagnant for months, no latest development for me. My strategy currently still waiting for the market correction to pick up some stocks I like. GE13 is around the corner, why not wait for it since I am waiting it for months. The bull market starting from early 2009 until today it is still not taking a break, market correction is unavoidable, only when.

Last year my stock pick were Hartalega & Allianz, both of them beat the market by decent margin. Hope that I am able to repeat the same call for this year and years to come. This year I don't have any stock call particularly at this moment, as I believe that the market will present a good chance to buy some good quality stocks that I admired like Hartalega, Allianz, CIMB, Public Bank, Jobstreet, and LPI.

Nothing cast in the stone, is all depend on the prices presented by "Mr. Market". Basically I like insurances, banks and nitrile glove makers, asset light company with solid recurrence cash flow. Although some consumer stocks like Nestle, Dutchlady and DIGI are solid with free cash flow but they are not cheap either. I also don't think that they will drop to PE below 18, this is the pricing I will enter.

Old Town is flying for last few months, it is eye catching. Its capacity expansion and China venture seem attractive. However, the customer experience at their outlet is suck, big time. It should be the worst customer service provided among all F&B. Every time I think of buying it, i not feel comfortable. With this kind of service, how it can retain its shore in the highly competitive environment.

HLFG is relative cheap entry as compared to Hong Leong Bank, however I dont like this method of investing.

16 comments:

  1. Hi 2ndbrother,

    How are you?

    What is the PE of PBB, LPI, Allianz and Hartalega will trigger your engine to start buy them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

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  3. What about CIMB? Although their cost to income ratio is way higher than the peers but they are now the largest investment bank in Asia.Besides that their regional business should offer us some diversification.

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  4. Boh pia, bro. Oldtown servers are not well trained and mostly foreigner to maintain the cost low, hence service is not so good.

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  5. Under normal circumstances, I like to buy quality stocks at low teen level. Preferably below PE12. There are some cases, I keep on buying even though the PE is 16, this is applicable to growth stock only.

    CIMB had evolved from a investment bank to universal bank, then from universal bank to regional bank. Its transformation is really successful, its management is competent. The bank is well managed, aggressive and managed to eating other bank market share. Sometimes cost to income ratio is not the absolute tool. The business model of bank now is different from the old days. Its internet banking also catching up, customer relationship is improving, documentation & delivery of loan documents rank on par with foreign banks. However political risk is something cannot be ruled out.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi 2nd Brother,

    Would you like to update your views regarding the market? You were spot on again on CIMB holdings. The market has rerated CIMB even before the election. Of course, it exploded after 505.

    My opinion regarding the current market is valuation are rich. Valuation of the small/mid cap stocks will catch up with the larger cap dividend stocks. Stocks are getting less attractive day by day.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Heineken, stock market is tough to predict. If I stay 100% in stock I would be making more, however I am still satisfy with my holdings. Besides stock, I have other investment to compensate back.

    I am of of opinion that stock market will still moving upward, liquidity in the system need to find a place. For instant, myself finding some difficulty in property investment due to bigger cash outlay required and stringent requirement by banks. For my latest loan, it took me 3 months to get it approved.

    Secondly, low interest rate making saving a lousy approach; the return rate will be negligible as compare to inflated assets prices. Being stock or property (I mean quality asset) will still outperform others.

    3rd, this is the second time Malaysia is having its infrastructure boom in the history of our economy. The money pump in by government is huge, contractors and suppliers are making good money. And the money also need to find a place, related industries will make more profit.

    Stock investing is always being selective. Yes stock is not cheap, so find a value buy is tough. However finding fairly value stock which may generate increase of net profits for coming years is the key to make money at the current environment. In other word, you only making money from future profit of a company you vested. Not the case that you already making money the time you buy.

    Finding a company with stable profit and tend to make progress of more that 10% grow of annual net profit is still not that difficult.

    I always remember a quote from Ben Graham that "we must mentally and financially prepared for market fluctuation". Stay invest, but must get prepared.

    Happy hunting and investing.

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