Saturday, May 8, 2010

配合策略

人们一直在猜到底是不是希臘财务危机造成全球金融市场动荡不停,是不是第二波的金融危机又来侵袭,没有人知道答案。不过现今的经济状况应该会比2008年好和稳定,没有信心的问题。

市场会不会再跌,没有人知道,我当然也不知道。以其在想市场会不会再跌,不如问问自己准备好了没?子弹准备了吗?目标锁定了没?

我的看法是这一次不会比2008年严重,除非中国那边也出现问题,所以策略是不需要太高的现金在手。配合策略,减持一点股票,等待机会。加上大马也没什么跌(几时都是慢半拍),还有也不一定要买大马的股票。看看后续如何再决定也不迟。

13 comments:

  1. 二哥,

    子弹有了。可是klse的股价波动不大,很难买下手,在等等等等等。

    可否介绍几个外围股票, 或是大马的股票看看研究一下?

    我在看着美国的银行股。再问你一个问题。美国的银行股平均的pe是多少?如果给你选,Wells Fargo 20 块,Citi 三块你认为那一支投资回酬较高?

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  2. Buddy, I have just recently picked the stocks books again...and try to refresh my knowledge about stocks....hope u will welcome me and look forward to learning a lot from you....hahaha..

    From : Tiger

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  3. Read this in cari forum
    "投资股票是不可以"等运到的"这是一般人的做法=发白日梦浪费时间。如果一档股票长期以来超过一年股价都是平平的或者几年以来股价由上到下好像过山车那样重复又重复就像贸易板的(tanjong2267)买到这种公司就注定要"呕血",它公司的市值从2007年到现在接近三年市值都是原地跑步没什么突破,白白浪费三年的光阴,真冤枉。 待续"

    What is your opinion?

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  4. Ivan, i did not follow US market, so not able to provide any opinion. I just start looking at HK.

    For local stock, please read thru' my previous posts, then you will find a clue.

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  5. Tiger, I did read that comment at Cari. Is hard to explain on paper. Generally, what the guy said is the fact. My average price for Tanjong is less than RM12.00 excluding all dividend received. I did make money. Sometime, you just cannot look at a individual stock alone, your strategy, risk exposure and stock portfolio also need to be considered.

    I give some extra facts that they guy is missed out;

    1. 3 years ago at current share price, Tanjong is trade at PE 15-16.

    2. EPS has increased from around 120 sen to 168 sen, so actually the company is making more and more money. The only thing is the market does not appreciate that only. Besides, divided also increasing.

    3. He is taking 3 years picture, where "so happen" at the top (KLCI 1500), follow by financial crisis then recovery. Maybe he experience is only 3 years in the market.

    4. I dont want to say he is not good but carefully with someone is only making a lot of money in 1 or 2 years only. He might be right coincident with the stock market recovery. I have seen a lot of so called "expert" who is make money during bubble and recovery year assumed they are expert, but gone missing after some years. In stock market, the problem is not to make money but to make money in long term basis. Your stock selection and strategy must able to withstand the test of time.

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  6. 2nd Bro,

    I guess i know which of it the H,T,J,C. Thanks for spoon feeding me and sharing the investing phylosophy like PE, Bench Marking,Apraisal, Corrections ,Physcology and lot others.

    So need you to reveal on HKSE again. What are the stocks or which sector should we appraise?

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  7. Thank you for informative facts and advice above.

    Read another comment in Cari:

    迷信名牌的效应真的害残了很多投资者像nestle这股票从2002年在20零吉左右一路升到现在34零吉左右如果加上它的股息顶多也只是那区区200% 左右的回酬率而已。八年时间RM一千只变成二千除了比定存好以外在股票的立场来讲并不理想(虽然它的产品几乎垄断本地某部份的市场)。时常在书里面会讲到"要重视股东权益报酬率而不是每股盈利"还有就是"要确保每保留一美元的盈余至少要创造出一美元以上的市场价值"。。。如果真的是依书直说去做,在大马会弄到blur blur 的根本没有可能从所谓的股东基金和保留盈余找到答案,但是书里面讲的原则并没有错,它根本的意思就是我曾经讲过的"商誉"也就是说投资者原意出比它实际价值的多少倍来买入有关公司,就好像现在的NESTLE,它在2002年的营业额是接近25亿,那时它的股价是RM20左右市值是50亿左右到了2008年营业额接近39亿,市值是80亿左右比02年的时候多50多%同样的它的股价也增长了接近50%左右。由此可见这么多年来投资者只愿意给NESTLE公司一倍的"商誉"买入它的公司虽然股价是升了但是它被市场给的价值并没有变。 待续


    Would like to seek your opinion on the above statement.

    Thanks for your sharing and spending precious time with us on investment knowlegde.

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  8. Ivan, i currently look at some financial stocks like HSBC, Standard Chartered and internal consumption stocks like Anta, Ajisen. Agricultural stock like China Agri and Chaolda, Oil & Gas like China Oilfield Services

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  9. I looked at HSBC since 2008 and recently Ajisen was added into my radar too. Good to know 2nd brother also looking at this stock.

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  10. Brother, Thank You. Doing homework now.

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  11. Tiger,I did not follow Nestle, my comment would not be accurate. To me everything also has a price, currently it is priced at PE 20++. I am reluctant to pay this price for a stock without grow prospect. But it would be very attractive if the share price drop to 25.00 and below. If Nestle is fulfill your portfolio strategy then no harm to have it.

    The issue the guy want to highlight is investor not willing to pay goodwill to this stock. I not really share his opinion. People are willing to pay PE 20++ right now is already paying premium to the goodwill. The problem of Nestle is that it did not grow at super rate, however it did pay good dividend so the share price is supported by dividend yield only. With no grow prospect, no change of appraisal would happen. if change of appraisal can occur, how much is the PE people willing to pay since it already traded at PE20++ ? Your return for owning this stock would be the dividend yield plus possible grow of profit.

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  12. goodluck88, I have followed Ajisen since 2008. Its high valuation stop me to buy. But the share price has increased from 4.++ to 7.++ since then, ha..ha.. In term of valuation wise (for internal consumption stock), i found that Anta is more reasonably priced, even it has appreciated from 10.00 to 12.00 since i start follow it. Still waiting for good price to enter.

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