2nd brother - investing in bursa malaysia (投资之说)

Adding Position to Hartalega

2012-01-09T15:46:00.002+08:00

My first purchase of year 2012 is Hartalega....again. Can't find better bet, still opine that Hartalega is attractively priced. Yes, latex price is low compared to months back, however this nothing new to Hartalega. If i not mistaken the current latex price, price of latex glove is almost on par with Hartalega's nitrile glove price. Therefore customer still can choose a better product at similar price. The foundamental of Hartalega is not affected.

My portfolio beat Index for year 2011, however is still below 15% of what i targeted. As i said previously, some times i need a marathon to get satisfactory results. I still stick to what i know better in term of stocks and strategy.

Since every week, paper is publishing stock pick for year 2012 or dragon year, do I have some? Yes, my pick will be Hartalega and Allianz. I also see Jobstreet is attractive at current price although it may be affected if the economy turn bad. No matter how it still a cyclical stock. I also think that celco is able to grow further since there are so many smart phones in the market. Few years back i thought that celco is a mature and saturated industry that purely for dividend play but i think the situation is changing.

I also think that Cypark is in a good industry, landfill management and solar energy however i don't know how reliable of their management. Further more, political issue may affect the company business.

Able to foresee and able to capitalize

2011-12-02T09:06:00.002+08:00

It has been sometimes i did not update my blog, very sorry to all the viewers.For the past few months, thing has been stagnant until recently.

Yes i manage to foresee it is only the correction for stock market not the beginning of the bear market. However able to foresee and able to capitalize on it is a seperate issue. As i mentioned previously, i did not purchase any stock for past few months. Indeed my stock portfolio did not change for more than 1 year. My core holding - Hartalega, Public Bank and Allianz did not perform well in term of share prices, but their scorecard in term of financial results are satisfactory.In year 1929, Philip Fisher also managed to foresee the market was going to collapse however he did nothing. Instead he was looking for stock which was relatively cheap or stock that yet to go up. He was losing money, although he was rigth that market eventually collapsed few months after his prediction.I managed to foresee HLFG is going to be the winner of Hong Leong Bank - Eon Bank saga, but i failed to capitalize on it. I said Astro and Aeon Credit is attractive but i also failed to purchase any. I also made a few bad call like YTL Cement, and luckily i did not buy. All these are recorded down for me to review for my future investing decision making.Year to date i still barely making money but only dividend received.

In year 2008 i started to invest in property, and going aggresive by year 2010. What i want is to diversify my investment vehicle. I was lucky that the property market was booming starting from end 2009. Some of my investment still yet to see the result but what can said is property investing is profitable. You need to be selective and not over leverage.

Similar to my stock investment, although the result is not satisfactory currently but i still have confidence. This because i foresee my stocks holding going to make more money (business profit) than now for years to come.

Comment and Opinion

2011-09-30T16:18:00.002+08:00

I did not manage to capitalize on the recent share price correction. Limited fund available at the moment and this fund also reserve for my property investment. I still of opinion that the sell off is only correction not the beginning of the bear market. I aware that many will think otherwise. Share market tend to correct every 3-5 years and this time should be also correction not recession. Some investors already feel the pain, especially those invested in the 2nd grade stocks. In order to survive in the stock market and make money always not an easy task. Over more than 10 years of investing experience tell me to only stick to really well managed companies is the way to weather through the market fluctuation. One should always take a long term perspective and prepared for the up and down of the market. If you ask me some of the stocks are quite attractive like CIMB and Aeon Credit.I sold one service apartment recently and reinvested into a terrace house. This is big investment for myself, hopefully i made a correct choice, instead of buying share i vested in property. Seldom people buy terrace house for renting purpose but i plan to do that. Recent property price hike make some of the landed sub-sale look attractive as compared to newly launched condo or landed.

Reporting season - comments

2011-08-26T08:56:00.003+08:00

The reporting season is over. Quite sometimes i did not review my position, my share holding still the old ones, Hartalega, Public Bank and Allianz. Hartalega posted record quarterly profit of 55mil, the highest among glove players. What i foresee last year happened today as latex glove producers are all suffering but nitrile glove producer is enjoying. However, the market still fail to appreciate Hartalega....again. Although it had running a full capacity, people are blaming it lack of room to expand. For those are running at 60-70% capacity are regard as got room to improve. I really cannot understand the logic especially these arguments are from the so called "analyst". Hartalega had rolled out additional 2 lines at Plant 5 and is planning to build the capacity. After all these materialized, it would it capacity by 35% with the order is waiting to flow in immediately. Hartalega is not that kind of company able to grow by M&A due to its patented in-house production technology, which made them so efficient and lowest cost producer. If they decided to take more market share in future, it would kill off all competitor by lower its margin by a "few percent only". Yes.....is all its competitors. I truly not able to understand why Topglove is more pricier than Hartalega by close to market capital by almost 1 Billion. The market is so illogical!

Public Bank also posted wonderful results, it should be able to make EPS of 100sen this year. It is only trade at prospective PE of 13. Only PE of 13 for one of the best managed company. Once i joke with my friend, why he want to buy Well Fargo, since Public Bank is better? Growing profit quarter by quarter, some said "slow and steady" but i think it is not true. It is growing at the rate of mid teen and above for years you guys still called it slow and steady??

Allianz is making 70mil for 6 months ended 30 June 2011, it is now making more money than LPI, without taking into the account of any surplus transfer from life insurance. Which its market capital is also 1 Billion less than LPI. Is matter of time Allianz will fetch a comparable market capital with LPI.

Although the market is highly fluctuated currently, but i still confident that my share holding is able to withstand that and beat the market.

Owning Asset?

2011-08-22T13:54:00.004+08:00

I am of opinion that the landscape of malaysia economy is evolving very fast. The wealth is transfer from the group of lower income to middle income, and from the middle income to group of rich. With asset (especially land and house) appreciated very high and fast, we may face the situation something like Hong Kong and Singapore, where lower income and middle income group struggle to own a shelter. While the rich enjoy the most as their asset being land, house or share appreciate substantially. If this situation persist for years, it is very dangerous to those did not own any asset. Keeping cash is something not wise, provided you are prepared to snatch some asset if prices corrected.

Some think that property market today is a bubble, i do agreed partially especially those recently launched high rises. However, material prices and land cost also increase recently although is not as high as the property prices. I will not surprise if Bank Negara implement more control on property purchase.

I am worrying for those do not own any asset being share or property. Asset free person going to lose the most as asset price keep on inflated. It is true that the market can move up and go down, but if you failed to capitalize, then how? Because property is trending up over long term. Similar to good stocks also, long term it is trending up.

I am of opinion owning asset is way to move ahead. At least you get hurt some and gain some.

The Market and Me

2011-08-10T09:07:00.003+08:00

The market is highly fluctuated at the moment. Put it this way i am not well prepared at present. My cash level is not high enough to take advantage of it. I still not willing to lower further my cash level until that is really a big steal. If the steep drop of share market happen in September or October it would be better as my source of fund will flow in by then. To me this round of sell off is the correction at the bull market as the profitability of businesses is not affected, only the prices of share went down. It is an opportunity to be exploited.

Besides, i also need fund for my property investment. Although i decided to pull out one of the condo i booked earlier this year due to pricing issue, i am still looking for investment elsewhere. This year i still not buy any property yet as my decision is hold back by this earlier booking. Since this is off, i am prepared to move ahead. There are some similarity between share and property investment, there are only buy the good ones and hold until the market appreciate it. Although the selection criteria are different but the principles are the same.

Both Public Bank and Hartalega reported fabulous financial results but the market still did not appreciate them. As the market is not efficient, however it long term it will. I still believe in this if not i will out from share market long time ago. The price performance of Public Bank and Hartalega is nowhere close to the performance of GLIC companies. Some say they are vomit blood companies as their share prices barely move. I still long on both counters not because i want to prove them wrong but to make money. I wont sway my believe and strategy. As long as they deliver good financial result i am prepared to hold for long term.

I did not update my blog for months because i have nothing to say. Buying share is not day to day business, most of the time doing nothing is doing somethings. My family members and friends are also at the same boats, i rather being conservative to make sure the boats are safe.

YTL Cement

2011-05-23T13:31:00.002+08:00

Construction materials are some of the items to be benifited from the ETP and to be specific Greater KL. If the above are successful implemented, Malaysia construction or infrastructure industry set to pick up or boom. My opinion is good time to buy YTL Cement with reasonable valuation. Talk in detail later

Patience and Time

2011-05-21T09:47:00.003+08:00

Some of my closed friends had started grumbling on the share prices of Hartalega and Allianz, but not Public Bank as they dont own it. In fact, the share prices of Hartalega, Allianz and Public Bank are sideline for months, even though all of them reporting impressive financial results. Every time they grumble to me, i told them to be patient as once the share price go up it will not stop.

Moving of share prices is illogical and irrational in short term, as it purely depend on the "buying interest" of the mass investors, it had nothing to do with the financial performance of individual company. A company can produce a wonderful results but without "buying interest" their share price will be sidelined, until the mass investor realised its potential, then it will be traded at "fair value", after optimistic kicking in it will be traded at higher PE valuation, finally traded at premium when investor priced in the future prospect.

I have mentioned previously that the only advantage a tidy retail investor possess in order to outperform the market is time. To beat the market you need to have patience, if the companies you vested are good then time will be at your side. As Warren Buffett had said "time is friend to good company but foe to average or below average companies". So let time work for you, over a long duration, good company will make more and more money. A company that making more money year after year will "worth" more and more as time will work for it. Or time is money!

A closed check of the financial results is a must to ensure that the companies you vested is good or average only in order for the above principle can be applied. This is a separate issue, not in the discussion today.

A company that is unable to increase their profit over years, an example BAT, it share price hardly can move over years, as time is not working in its favour. Althought it still paying out good dividend, but please construct a discounted cash flow for BAT, it will not be a surprise if you noticed that the future value is lesser that today; even without considering the inflation.

Buy only company that able to grow over a long duration for "time" to work for you.

Add position to Public Bank & Hartalega

2011-04-19T09:46:00.003+08:00

There is nothing happen to my portfolio for the past months. However received new source of fund recently, add position to Public Bank and Hartalega. Public Bank just announced a very Strong 1Qtr results yesterday, net profit up by 20%, look like it going to make EPS of 95sen for year 2011. At the current price, it deemed quite attractive, PE is less than 14 for a well managed company. Many may not like it but not me.

As for Hartalega, i am quite optimistic that it is going to announce another record net profit, EPS can be around 53sen easily. It is going to built its plant No. 6 to expand further. I like company that able to grow organically, Hartalega is one of that in Bursa Malaysia. As i mentioned previously that a company only can fetch a higher PE valuation if it able to grow (in term of net profit) and pay good dividend. I am still waiting for the market to appraise it as grow stock valuation.

For property, i booked one more condo, nothing conclusive yet. Able to know the outcome or selection by next month only.

Comments

2011-03-11T09:53:00.002+08:00

In the latest Berkshire Hathaway annual report, Warren Buffett talk about conserving an emergency fund for rainy day. It is very true and it is able to pull you thru during bad economy or crisis. Indeed it should form part of our portfolio management and the level of cash should depend on our strategy. This is crucial when your capital base grew bigger and your monthly income is insignificant as compared to your capital. (I had talk about this previously)

Crisis will come in every different forms each time, only a few are able to foresee that. Layman like us, is better to have some strategy in placed. In year 97-98, i was badly hit. Luckily my capital is very very small, that is my pocket money during college days and i knew nothing about share. I bought share merely follow friends recommendation. In year 08-09 i am well prepared for the bad time, was able to snatch some stocks at steal price. Selecting stocks in bad times is easy because even good companies will traded at floor price, however buying is tough. You need to have gut to go ahead which is against the crowd.

In bad times, most of stocks appear to be not safe, you are worrying that they might drop further. In reality it is safe to bet, is all human nature make you feel that it is not safe. Everything appear to be not cheap.

However in good times like now, most people feel that a lot of stocks it very attractive at current prices. They feel that some stock traded a a single PE is undervalue, they assume that this group of stock should command a better valuation. What a turnaround! They start to talk about the future of the company, the balance sheet, cash per share, and etc.

Just wonder why the stock selection criterion has changed so fast!

Comment and opinion

2011-02-18T08:57:00.002+08:00

CNY is over, have to back to business as usual. Vet through most of the analysts' top pick for the year of rabbit. Surprisingly only one research house has picked my favorite counter - Hartalega. Only one analyst in The Edge highlighted Allianz, none has pick Public Bank. Ha..ha... what can i say? Absolute nothing. Most of the analysts tried to pick a winner for a short period, they need to prove themselves in a short period to build up their reputation or so that they are able to come back next year telling what their buy list for the following year. Is all different strategy at all. My strategy is to pick up stocks that able to generate substantial profit increase for the coming years. Sometime the stock i bought does not "move" for more than a year, but i still stick to it. Eventually it did move up and achieve the return i wish.

So do i have the pick for this year? I also don't know, as i most probably will stick to my holding or add my position in Hartalega and Public Bank. If market presented a good buy, i will take the opportunity. There are nothing cast in stone. I also follow closely on the saga of Hong Leong Bank - Eon Capital, it look like the deal most probably go through at the expense of Primus. HLFG appear to be the eventual winner.

CPO price is close to its historical high, however the plantation stocks did not enjoy the rich valuation compare to 3 years ago. Maybe investor already aware that no matter what it is still a commodity and cyclical in nature. Besides, there are no value pick at the surface, as i seldom buy these kind of stocks.

The Greater KL unveiled by the PM is making its present, property stocks are rising. Soaring property prices is good for those already vested, bad for the awaiting to get into it. Maybe i will try to get one more for this year, as the prices of future years appear to be more scary. Of course there are so many argue that there is a bubble, i only partially agree on it at the selected locations. Soaring prices is not equivalent to bubble, affordability is the issue.

Review of Year 2010

2011-01-07T16:05:00.002+08:00

For year 2010, i thought i am going to under perform the index, however the last minute "window dressing" by the market has help to improve my return to 21% as compared to index at 19.3%.

My biggest mistake for the year was add on position to Topglove, although i still not suffering any lose of capital based on average purchased price, however it has affected me on the opportunity cost. I failed to foresee the adverse future of latex glove which is diminishing and the outlook will remain unfavorable in foreseeable future. A bleak outlook of latex glove means bright outlook for nitrile glove as the market is not going to shrink. I still positive on Hartalega. Despite the fluctuation of share prices, surprisingly it still beat the market.

Public Bank is slow and steady. It make feel safe to charge ahead - means have buffer to pick relative smaller growth stock like Hartalega. As i mentioned previously, it not going to fly but it is a safe bet.

Allianz, surprisingly also align with market performance due to i was lucky to pick it quite low. Market will appreciate it after it might declare higher dividend. It still relatively cheap as compared to LPI.

My other blunder will be JCY, i should stick to my initial intention, which is to sell it after IPO. I applied the IPO with intention to make use of my idling money, but after that i shift my strategy because one of friend work at WD told me it might be a good bet since it was dominating the supply to WD and Seagate. Sometime in stock market even insider can't help much.

Based on the current market condition i am reluctant to commit more capital but also not thinking to reduce my exposure yet.

Debt Issues

2010-12-03T11:26:00.003+08:00

For personal investment, some like to use debt, some avoid using debt. There are no right or wrong on this matter. To me, is all depend on which asset class you invest. Using debt in stock investing is very risky, but in property investment it is a leverage game. Give an example below, see which camp you prefer.

Case 1:
Cash = 30K
Debt = Nil

Case 2:
Cash = 30K
Asset = 100K
Debt = 100K

Case 3:
Cash + asset = 130K
Debt = 100K

Case 4:
Cash + Asset = 530K
Debt = 500K

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All the 4 cases above, you net worth are the same, 30K only.

The tricky issue here is if your able to turn debt to "self financing" with surplus; then how we going to treat or classify this debt?

Are Case 1 is wealthier than Case 4??
Sure Case 4 is richer, althought the net worth is still the same.

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In stock market, some of the listed companies like IOI and QL, are using debt to grow their business. So are this type of stock worth investing?

Personally I dont like this group of stocks as investing in stock market is already high risk investment. Better not to compound your risk.

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In property investing, is also dont compound your leverage by buying cash depleting "asset".

Buy and hold is dead?

2010-11-19T08:58:00.004+08:00

Buy and hold is dead. I heard people are talking like this a few months back. My opinion is this may be right if you taking a short term perspective. At the current market state, is more easy to trade rather than buy then hold for a long period to realise the "intrinsic value" or "fair value". If you apply trading strategy for last few months, you may sit on handsome profit. People tend to talk louder when they are making good profit. I also have to admit that trading is more appropriate currently. If you traded correctly, making >20% is not a mammoth task, and you are on par with all the investing gurus. There are no reason not to shout about. I have seen enough people or so called "investor" huhaa at bull market but eventually disappear after bear market.

Investing in stock market is a long term business. To survive or making money in stock market is not how much you made in this year alone but consistency of profit you make year after year. All the gurus build their wealth and reputation due to they had achieved a long history of consistent above average profit. Any given year there are sure some "smart alec" is making more money then these gurus, but where are they?

The gurus must sure have some strategy to out last the bull and bear market that is unavoidable. And i am sure that their strategy is not short term oriented, since they are building wealth and furtune over a long duration. I am not against trading, but you have to limit your exposure. Is fine to trade 10-20% of your capital, but dont forget you must also ready for long term cycle of stock market.

To trade or not to trade? Is up to you. Frankly, i spend lesser time in stock market for last couple of months. The reasons are is stock market is high although is not forming bubble yet (my opinion. Contrary to year 2008 the market was traded above 1400. i sold most of my stock) and good buy would not appear now. The other reason is i spend more time in property investment.

Streamline of Portfolio....again

2010-11-12T09:13:00.003+08:00

I have streamlined again my stock portfolio. My core holding reduce to Hartalega, Public Bank and Allianz. All my Topglove has been converted to Hartalega and Public Bank. The reasons i did so are nitrile glove is cheaper than latex glove, there may be foundamental change of latex glove producer because high raw latex price. It look like latex glove going to lose its edge. I dont foresee price of commodities going to drop in the offing. This going to hurt latex producers, especially players are not competitive in their price. Although Topglove is still the low cost producer of latex glove, and nitrile glove capacity is still unable to eat big market share from latex glove, but over time it will. Can you imagine that a premium product (nitrile glove) is selling cheaper than non-premium product (latex glove), what going to happen? Hartalega going to enjoy the wide profit margin and demand increase. I consider Hartalega is "able and lucky" as describe by Phlip Fisher. Bullish on it.

In early of year 2009, i converted my LPI to Hartalega. After that both also flying high. However as on today, net profit of Hartalega is more than LPI. Is a matter of time the market capital of Hartalega will outpace LPI. The distintive difference between the two is LPI paying good dividend, Hartalega is growing faster. Which one you prefer is depend on which camp you in.

For same sector comparison, Allianz is making comparative net profit as to LPI, however it is trade at steep discount to LPI. The market capital of Allianz (inclusive if Allianz PA) is aroung 1.4 billion but the market capital of LPI is around 2.5 billion. LPI is paying good dividend but Allianz is going to pay good dividend after settlement of loan from parent company. Again it depend on which you in. (P/S: Allianz is a low liquidity stock)

As for Public Bank, i knew it not going to fly but it still able to grow and paying good dividend. Again is balancing value and growth stock. It still not trading at the reasonable prospective PE (i peg at 16) of a well run business.

Underperform - Year 2010

2010-10-04T08:13:00.003+08:00

Is about 2 months i did not update this blog. I am not out of the market but less attention. I did make some adjustment to my portfolio, this is due to i need more capital for my property investment. My holding currently just consist of Public Bank, Hartalega, Top Glove and Allianz. I am still holding stocks consist of value and growth. It look like i am going to underperform the market for the 1st time in 10years since 2000, but it did not bother me at all. I am not chasing the short term performance. I rather to stick to my strategy and investing method which has beaten the market for a long duration. I am looking at long term competitive advantages of my holdings not the short term share price fluctuation. As long as i am satisfied with their competitive edges i will hold them as long as i could. I am long enough in the stock market, i knew how to beat it in long run.

For property investment i just bought my 2nd and 3rd property with friend. One is for rental income and the other one is for capital appreciation. I prefer not to talk too much on property since i am still learning, limited sucessful case able to share. Furthermore, there is a debate on property bubble or property super cycle.

Allianz 的 appraisal change

2010-08-02T14:02:00.000+08:00

Allianz，最近买入了这间公司。有朋友问说，它也不怎么样 undervalue，underwriting 也不是非常出色，dividend 也很低，怎样看都不是很值得？？

保险公司是我一路以来都有留意的行业。打从10 年前看了评述 warren buffett 的书后，就买了 P＆O 和 LPI，也曾买过 Kurnia Asia。亏过也赚过。这行业的重点是管理层，只有好的管理层才能创造价值。

从cimb 那里买入普险业务后，跟母公司借了 490 Mil。问题也从这里开始，虽然是零利息的贷款。还有就是 bank negara 对资本要求的提高。为了解决这问题， Allianz 通过优先股筹了 611 mil。

那又有什么卖点呢？是 appraisal change。

通过优先股，它解决跟母公司的贷款和 bank negara 对资本要求。从现在开始，它的盈利都可派发给股东。还有它的管理层也不差，形象会改变！

情绪切入法

2010-07-01T08:57:00.000+08:00

Behavioral finance 华语我不知如何翻译，在佳礼的 Jeangrey网友称它为情绪切入法。这东东的佼佼者是 bill miller 和 charlie munger。在美国 subprime 发生之前，bill miller 在这方面是非常出色的。

bill miller 在还未成为 fund manager 之前是读心理学的，在成为 fund manager 后，他把心理学的人性的弱点或盲点用在投资。在1985年开始，他就研究 warren buffett，benjamin graham 和 philip fisher 的学说，学的是 value investing （价值投资）。在他投资生涯的初期，多数投资在 old economy 的行业如银行和零售。在90年代中期开始，他把 value investing 用在科技行业上，买的公司有 Dell，AT＆T 等等，在2000年的科技泡沫前减持科技股。他的看法是 value investing 也可以用在这些科技股上。他的专长是研究投资大众对某些公司或行业有没有 mis－perception，而造成股价的 mis－price。

N年前，当 google 要上市的时候，他就马上成立了一个小组来研究 google。结果他得到的结论是市场或投资大众严重的对 google 不了解，也造就了 google 当时的 IPO 的 book building 被低估，他的平均买价是少过 100 美元。事后证明他的眼光独到，也赚了大钱。

他另外的观点有如 amazon 的 profit margin 和 Borders 同样是 8％是否也存在着 mis－perception 等等........

其实 behavioral finance 早在 benjamin graham 的＜inteligent investor＞一书出现，里面的 fear ＆ greed 也就是情绪切入法的一环。

当 Jeangrey 在两年前的佳礼发表，造成论坛的一小震荡，原因不外是人们没有听过，内心的求知欲望造成羡慕，也不停的猜测，不知觉中也掉入 behavioral finance 里的 mis－perception。我曾在佳礼说过情绪切入法只是 value－added，如果独立的在用会使你走入猜测股市短期的波动，那你就是在投机！！

我说它是 value added，是因为前提是你要会用 value investing！不然你会越踩越深，掉入别人或自己的情绪里。我也对佳礼的一些网友说，这情绪切入法不适合他们，因为他们的价值投资的基础不强，但听得进去的又有几个呢？

谁又会承认自己的基础不强呢？这也是人性的盲点！！！

新投资或加码

2010-06-28T13:48:00.000+08:00

投资股票常常会遇到短期的投机（或投资）机会，这些机会不外是 IPO， M＆A，某些股票突然被压卖，贴士，他人介绍，突然发现某股被严重低估，某些行业股被抄......等等。

以我的过去经验，这些短期的获利（有时候还要亏）都比不上你继续持有或再加码你现在已有的股票。有时候朋友有叫我去看看某些股票，原因通常都是看起来瞒吸引人的，应该被低估，应该有可能被市场重估等等。我一般的回答都是买股票是不需要攒牛角尖的，你所谓的股票有没有比 hartalega，topglove， public bank 好？有没有比 hartalega 低估？成长有没有比 hartalega 和 topglove 高？以什么 basis 市场重估你讲的股票？

市场重估某股票（或 trade 在更高的PE）一般上只有两个原因：－
1. 高成长的公司
2. 给高股息的公司

看看 hartalega，它现在是 trade 在 prospective PE 10倍以下，高成长，cash flow 又强，市场重估的机会是不是更高呢？？

要买其他股票是别忘了跟你已拥有了的股票比一比，大部分时候加码比买新投资更好！前提是你拥有的已是一流的公司.

风险和质量

2010-06-11T14:55:00.000+08:00

常常都会被问到如此的问题，为什么要买 topglove 和 hartalega，不买 supermax， kossan，adventa 或 latexx呢？为什么要买 public bank 和cimb，而不买 ammb， hongleong bank 呢？这些比较起来较便宜也较值得！

如果投资股票是单单这样，那为什么还有大把人还在问如何长期在股市里赚钱呢？？里面牵涉到了风险和质量的东东。

风险，简单来说所有的数字包括 PE，NTA，Discounted Cashflow， margin of safety，Dividend yeild， balance sheets，cash flow statement，income statement 都不能有效的减低风险。有人说投资股票最重要的就是管理好你的风险，我很赞成这说法。看过不少人对这些数字了如指掌，不过还赚不到钱，分分钟还亏钱。很多人买股票的首要考量或出发点就是这股票可以上到多少钱，以这价钱买回酬有几多巴仙？我的出发点通常都是想想买这股票风险有多低，再来看它的价钱。

还有就是大把人认为价值投资重点是 margin of safety，然而它的中心点却是质量（qualitative）。它包括如下：－

1. 管理层的素质（competency of the management）
2. 营利的素质（quality of profit）
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy

Time the Market and Strategy

2010-05-24T13:52:00.002+08:00

Seem like there is a lot of interest on the topic of time the market and investing strategy, please drop your comment at this post. The old post is too long to read already.

配合策略

2010-05-08T14:31:00.000+08:00

人们一直在猜到底是不是希臘财务危机造成全球金融市场动荡不停，是不是第二波的金融危机又来侵袭，没有人知道答案。不过现今的经济状况应该会比2008年好和稳定，没有信心的问题。

市场会不会再跌，没有人知道，我当然也不知道。以其在想市场会不会再跌，不如问问自己准备好了没？子弹准备了吗？目标锁定了没？

我的看法是这一次不会比2008年严重，除非中国那边也出现问题，所以策略是不需要太高的现金在手。配合策略，减持一点股票，等待机会。加上大马也没什么跌（几时都是慢半拍），还有也不一定要买大马的股票。看看后续如何再决定也不迟。

Timed the Market

2010-04-22T17:49:00.004+08:00

A lot of Warren Buffett followers argue that timing to buy stock is less important as compared to buying under value stock. According to this group of investors, they are prepared to ride through the ups and downs of the market. If a stock is brilliant, they don't mind to practice buy and hold strategy. To them finding a good stock is more fruitful as compared to trying to time market entry.

I am a big fan of Warren Buffett. Did Warren Buffett timed the market? I had asked myself this question previously. My conclusion is Warren Buffett did timed the market. He always bought stocks during down turn and practice buy and hold for long term investment afterward. So people saying Warren Buffet did not timed the market is not right. The different is he only timed the market during crisis. He seldom time for a minor correction because short term up and down is unpredictable. However major correction is unavoidable, that is why he is prepared with huge cash pile for big buy during crisis. He bought Washington Post in year 1974, Coca-cola in 1988 and most recent GE and Goldman Sachs in 2008. If he did not time the market then why he always purchased stock at downtime?

I did write a post regarding a sizable correction every 3-5 years and a major correction every 10-12 years. So should we take advantage of it or ignore it totally??

I sold 70% of my stocks at mid year of 2008 and start buying back from end 2008 until early 2009. Just purely luck. Good timing did help a lot.

Don't forget that we, small investor, don't have constant big cash flow to invest as compared to Warren Buffett. Your monthly saving might be negligible compared to your portfolio, how you going to rely on that? To me, portfolio management and applying appropriate strategy are very important. Especially when your portfolio is already sizable.

Therefore, don't time the "kacang putih" drop, but time for significant correction. Normal day just hold on to your good quality stock, preferred growth stocks or growing stock (mid teen is acceptable) with good dividend.

Value investing did not mean that you cannot time the market.

I wrote this because a question posted to me.

Glove Industry

2010-04-14T11:24:00.001+08:00

Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.

A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-

1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.

2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.

3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.

4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.

I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.

两个知讯

2010-04-07T13:36:00.000+08:00

经常放工回家的时候都会听 988 的 6点财经短讯，.....今天综合指数报 1300点，上升股有 275支，下跌股有 280支，380支股平盘，560支股没有交易......哼我到底有没有听错，有五百多支股没有交易？？现在是什么行情了，已是1300点了还有那么多股没有交易？

最近 bursa malaysia 刚刚一些交易数据，本地机构投资公司的交易共占了总交易量的 55％，外国基金占了25％，而本地散户只有15％。

看了以上两个知讯，你有何感想？

我的解读，
1. 股票流动量的确是个问题，可以说只有大概 20％的股票是 efficient罢了，不要以为买了冷门的＂价值股＂就一定会有钱赚。

2. 没有机构投资公司留意的股票是不会上的，尤其是小资本的公司，本地加上外国的机构投资公司已经占乐 80％的交易了。

high probability （高可能性）

2010-03-15T09:46:00.000+08:00

之前我说了high certainty （高确定性），现在要谈谈 high probability （高可能性）。因为高确定性的投资机会不会常出现，你可能等了一整年都没有一次机会。退求其次，高可能性，也是不错的方法。

有研究显示，长期买低 PE 的股票也可以赚钱，这显然这一类的股票不乏追随者。但这结论太过草率了，因为也有大把低 PE 但赚不到钱的股票。所以我们也应该 study 一下到底是那一些原因是低PE，然后又会上的股票。一般说来，原因不外以下几个：－

1. 公司的盈利可以成长
2. 可以接受的管理层
3. 可以接受的 balance sheet 和 cashflow

今天说说刚刚上市 JCY，因为 book building 的价钱定在 RM1.60，散户的买价只有 RM1.52。它预测今年的盈利有大概 300mil，EPS 有 16仙，所以 PE 大概是 10。因为 IPO 有抽到，也开始有问问在 western digital 工作的朋友。结论是说它的生意模式就是 volume game，就好象 topglove，low cost producer win the game，竞争者要代替它也不容易。多年来它还可以成长，又开始 bid samsung 和 hitacii 的和约，符合以上几点。本来想赚一点水钱就卖的，现在决定不卖。

原因就是有高可能性会有钱赚。

业绩数一数

2010-02-27T16:48:00.002+08:00

又过了业绩报告的季节，是时候评估下自己有投资的公司或有留意的公司。

表现出色的有 CIMB，Hartalega，LPI 和 Allianz 。平平稳稳的有 PBB，Aeon。差强人意的有 Digi 和 Jobstreet。还没有公布业绩的有 PPB，Tanjong 和 Topglove。开始留意的有 JCY 和 F＆N。

cimb 强者归来，打从 2003年上市以来，买卖了三次，虽然有钱赚，但看起来，卖掉它都是错的选择。第一次卖是不相信 nazir razak 可以改变联昌银行（BCB），第二次卖是为了增持现金，第三次卖是因为已经赚了。不得不相信 nazir razak 的能力和关系。

Hartalega 表现一流，未来应该可以强劲成长，股息也在增加中。产品创新（innovation）和生产技术不断改进。如果无意外现在的七塊多也不算贵。

LPI，也是买卖了三次，卖掉它是错的选择。适度的成长和高股息提供了不错的回酬。唯一担心的是成也郑鸿标，败也郑鸿标。如果没有了 public bank 的 platform 和支持，它是不是可以继续成长？？

Allianz 业绩出色，但现金流不是很好股息也不高，要赚钱真的要有耐心。

Public Bank 我的 core holding，也是坚持价值投资的支柱。多年来它未成让我失望，会买卖，但长期买会多过卖。

Aeon 成长得看经济的大环境，股票大跌时要买的没轮到它，股票大上时要买的也没轮到它，还是忘记它吧！

Digi 已不在成长了，股息还不赖，看看３G 是否可以帮助它成长，不然就留给喜欢高股息的投资者吧！

Jobstreet 虽然有竞争能力和很好的 balance sheet，但它还是经济循环股，加上 monster 的入境，赚幅应该会继续的跌，也要看经济的大环境。

今年有什么策略？

2010-02-27T10:53:00.001+08:00

朋友长问今年有什么策略？说真的我还想不道有什么策略。以现在的股市我不敢在加码，也没有个别公司特别有兴趣。想了想，还是增加现金的部分，所以卖了一点点的 PBB 和 PB gold account 的黄金。

新年其间看了不少报章里一些人包过分析员和风水师对今年的看法，大致上结论只有两个：－

1. 今年的股市会特别波动，不会像 2009 年一样大起

2. 今年选股要特别小心，因为整体股市不会全部一起大涨

老实说以上的结论根本不是什么结论，相似客套话多一点。股市是不会说今年比较波动，去年波动不多，明年股市会较平稳的?股市唯一不变的就是波动，这是不变的原则。Ben Graham 说的投资者应该心理上和金钱上准备好来面对市场的波动，这就是我们应该做的事。熊市有什么可怕？可怕的是你没有准备好。牛市也不必怕错过，你已拥有不错的股票来享受。

为什么只要今年选股要特别小心？？是不是明年就可以随便买呢？？买股几时都要优先考虑到素质（qualitative），尤其是在大马，烂苹果太多了。最好是符合 philip fisher 说的有素质的成长股。

PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

2010-01-20T13:49:00.001+08:00

这篇可能是我今年的重要发表之一，送红包。

每一个有买股票的人都常听到什么是PE。关于 PE，有些人认为它很好用，有些人却认为它不行不准。那到底是谁是谁非呢？

在股票论坛和看了别人的部落阁不短的时间，但却不曾看过有人真正把 PE 解释的或如何利用它说个明白。其实 PE 本身并没有问题，问题是在用的人。人通常都是一样的，赚钱的就说它好用，亏钱的就说它没有用。PE 就好象是你做 modeling 一样，都是 model to ideal situation （假设完美的前提下）。

那么完美的前提又是什么东东呢？
1. 假设公司没有债务
2. 假设公司的盈利都是有素质的（quality of profit）
3. 假设公司的管理层都是能干的（competent management）
4. 假设公司把盈利再投资或归还给股东
5. 假设公司的盈利就是 cash flow （profit = cash flow）
6. 等等....

看了以上，你还会认为每一间公司的 PE 是＂应该＂一样的吗？？

我曾经说过，要用 PE 你一定要 bench marking，比方说一流的公司 PE ＂应该＂是 14－16，二流的是 10－13，三流的 8－9，如此类推。单单是 PE 还不够，可以加上 bench marking 就不错，如果再加 appraisal 会更好。

为什么说要再加 appraisal 呢？你必须了解股票市场都会 appraise 高成长和给高股息的股票比较高的 PE （16－22）。如果你买的公司已经 trade 在 PE 20 了，不过它还可以继续高成长，那你根本不应该卖。如果高成长的公司 trade 在 PE 16 以下，那是不是应该买呢？？几年钱 VADS 已 trade 在 PE 16 了，了解这间公司后我还是照买，两年后上了100％。

简单来说是 PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

股票的回酬

2010-01-15T09:28:00.002+08:00

以下是我两年前在佳礼的一发表

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

很多投资者对如何在股市里赚钱，都只有模糊的了解。有些人花了几年的摸索，跌跌幢幢，还在找出路。

不明白的问－为什么我买的股票不会上？为什么我买的股票 PE 那么低，还不赚钱呢？几年来，它的 PE 还是一样的呢？

为什么我买的股票 dividend yield 那么高，还高过 FD，但股价还是不会上的？

为什么我买的股票，每一年的盈利还在成长，但股价也是一般罢了？？

相信很多人都会面对以上的情况，然后自问－我都跟完那些投资大师所写的了，为什么还不能赚钱？？用我喜欢说的一句话－投资如果只是那样，那又何难呢？？

股票的回酬，不外是以下三点。

1. dividend yield （股息）
相信我们都长听到高股息（high dividend yield stock）的股票。名字都已告诉你了，你的回酬只是股息，你偏不信，买了还希望股价会上。这些公司有 BAT，GUINESS，BTOTO，NESTLE 等等。但这些公司的 cash flow 很强，公司不会有问题，也有能力继续给高股息。重点是 cash flow。

2. 成长（growth）
通常高成长股的 PE 会比较高，原因是它的高 PE 会因为高成长而迅速的降低。但如果 PE 过高，短期里你不会什么赚钱，因为它需要几年的高成长来拉低它的 PE（也就是会浪费几年）。最好是不要 valued 一间公司超过 PE 16。另外要注意的是它的盈利是否可以在未来的几年继续成长，如果不能，它的 PE 是不会继续高持的。如果你买的 PE 是＂合理＂的，那你赚的也就是未来的成长。如果你买的 PE 是＂被低估＂的，那你赚的也就是多过未来的成长。

3. PEG 或 PE expansion
也就是说它的 PE 是被低估了，这也是最难的问题。何为低估？何为高估？因为它是主观的，关系到了你的投资信念（investing believe），比较基石（bench marking），评估（appraisal）等等。简单来说你相信某股票的 PE 是被低估了,迟早会回到＂合理＂的 PE。比如说以 public bank 那样一流的公司，PE 应该是 16，但现在只有 PE 10，它是被低估了。所以你一定要 bench marking，比如说一流的公司 PE 是 14-16，二流的是 10-13，三流的是 10 以下。

身为投资者，我们应该如何取舍呢？？？这犹如地上有一张 10 块跟一张 100 块，你要拾那一张？？

所以当我们投资时，必须看完以上三点。

1.cash flow
有成长，被＂低估＂，没有 cash flow 不行。

2.成长
有 cash flow，没有成长，回酬只有 dividend yield, 股价不会上.

3. PEG
有成长，有 cash flow，PEG 可以使你事半功倍。

Multi Baggers 2

2010-01-14T16:41:00.000+08:00

Multi baggers 一般上多数是成长股。我曾在佳礼说过一间公司可以长时间的在成长通常只有两大因素：－

1. 行业的缘故－也就是成长的行业

2. 管理层－只有能干的管理层才可以帮助公司继续成长

如果你可以找到符合以上两个因素的公司，加上高确定性和股价还上到成长股的价钱，你唯一可以作的就是 bet big on it。

在 bursa malaysia 有大把的公司都是不能长时间成长的，它们肯定不是 Multi baggers。看了不少人喜欢用低PE，NTA 和 net working capital 来投资这一类的公司，我不敢说他们的投资方法错，因为这些都是普通的价值投资法，也是书本教的。也好，少了很多竞争者来买同一样的股票。

不过在 bursa malaysia 也有一些公司不属于高成长的行业但却有非常能干的管理层，举手拈来的有 public bank， cimb， LPI， tanjong 等等，这些公司多年以来都能稳健成长。加上有不错的股息，这一类也值得投资。

运气好和能干 & 行业优势

2010-01-09T23:58:00.000+08:00

最近的股票市场让我们看到了独一枝秀的手套股，这到底是这行业被抄上来呢，还是这行业受到更多投资者的认同呢？我的看法是后者可能性较高，当然也不排除有浑水摸鱼基本面次级的股票。最好的选择还是这行业的佼佼者－ topglove 和 hartalega。

我说过自己受 philip fisher 的影响较大，大师说一般上行业的 built in （以身俱来）的优势比个别公司的优势来得重要。手套业多年来稳健成长，又可以把成本转嫁给客户，不是每一个行业都拥有这些优势，显然这不简单。因为有买手套股，有朋友说我又赚危机（H１N１）钱，这让我联想到大师说的成功的公司通常都是：

１.fortunate and able （运气好和能干）
２.fortunate because they are able （运气好因为它们能干）

那你认为你买的公司是第一种还是第二，还是两个都不是？若是两个都不是，那么你只是运气好！

投资股票何尝不是这样，没有投资者可以长期好运气。在２００６和２００７年，股市一片大好，赚钱较容易。看到不少投资者因此而沾沾自喜，更有些把不是很正确的方法和理论视为理所当然。当然金融危机后，管理不当的公司首当其冲，立不住脚的投资法显得无助。

你投资的公司是否拥有行业优势？自己想清楚！
行业优势会使你事半功倍！！

风险高，回酬也高

2009-12-15T17:18:00.000+08:00

风险高，回酬也高，很多人投资股市都持有这想法，到底这些看法是对或是错呢？？

如果你一开始就认为股市是风险高，回酬也高，那你是以赌博的心态来买股票。最好是可以以小博大,买一点点可以赢多多，warrant 从来不会没有市场，垃圾股也不乏追随者。投资股票真的是这样吗？我个人认为投资是用最少的风险来得到不错的回酬。风险一高，无论回酬几高我都不会卖。这才符合 ben graham 说的 rule no.1：不可亏钱。如果你奉行和实践这想法，很多时候你会发现身边朋友的回酬都比你高不少，尤其是短期。我也不会因此而改变策略，我通常只赚有把握钱。几年下来不见得他们的回酬比我高到那里。为了减低风险，我一般上只投资高确定性的股票，我不用复杂的 valuation model，RANV，technical analysis 等等；因为这些都不能减低你的风险。一些朋友 show 给我看，某个股票用 discounted cash flow 来算，margin of safety 有很高喔，很值得买。但我问说，你 assume 的成长率，准确性有多高？他们都答不出。

不要沉迷在 valuation model，它从不能减低风险，只有高确定性才可以把风险降低。

是时候买 astro 了吗？

2009-12-09T23:54:00.000+08:00

是时候买 astro 了吗？多年以来 astro 的盈利都不能反映它的股价，打从 IPO 开始，它的卖点都是它的现金流。如果你的切入点是盈利，那你根本买不下手。过后又有印尼的问题，不过现在已成历史。还在亏损的只剩印度的生意。还有一点要留意的是明年它还要花２００mil 来推出新产品。

分析了以上的东东，加上盈利开始反映它的股价，我认为应该是时候买 astro 了。当然买卖自负！

调整投资组合

2009-12-08T23:21:00.000+08:00

最近把手上的组合做了一些小调整，调整投资组合是我一直不停在做的事。之前因为金融风波组合比较保守，多数资金都压在较稳扎稳打的 public bank 和 tanjong 上，比较注重价值（value）。

我的投资组合一般上都有传统的价值股再加上一些成长股，原因很简单，传统的价值股使我可以睡得很好，成长股将帮助我打败市场。比率因人而易，很多时候成长股都占我组合的３０－４０％，之前它只占了大概２０％，所以是时候做些调整。换马的成长股有 hartalega 和 top glove。哈哈，都是手套股！其中较看好 hartalega，虽然５塊多了，但还在加码。也顺便卖掉 IPO 抽到的 maxis。

Multi Baggers

2009-11-15T11:35:00.000+08:00

Multi Baggers，华语不知该如何翻译，就称它为＂倍数上升的股票＂吧！或许也可说为千里马。

第一次看到这东东是在 peter lynch 的书里出现，讲的是可以起双倍，..3X, 5X....10X 的股票。这话题是很多投资者很喜欢的，原因非常简单嘛，谁不希望自己买的股票有上升数倍的潜能。有些人不断的在寻觅，希望可以找到千里马，跟别人谈股票的时候也可以趁机炫耀一下自己独到的眼光。

题外话：
找到千里马真的有那么重要吗？曾经听一位老股友说，他曾在股票投资赚超过百万，有一股票从几塊钱上到几十塊，单单这股票他就赚了几百千，很多围听者都很心急的想知道现在的他是不是上岸了没？？那老股友说下说下悲哀的说，经济风暴一来没有想到最后还倒亏五百千。过后还加上一句：股票根本不是人玩的！

话说回来，如何选千里马呢？？要知道如何选千里马就一定要找出千里马的特征。通常这一类的公司都是那些在未来几年可以大幅度提高盈利，简单来说它们一般上都是成长股，还有就是市场还没有用成长股的评估来衡量它们。比方说，一公司的盈利是每股２０sen，现在是在 PE １０交易，也就是 RM２.００。两年后，每股盈利是３０sen，但市场已用成长股的评估来衡量它，它的 PE 现在是１８，那现在的股价将会是 RM５.40 了！！

找高确定性可以成长的公司，加上评估上的提升，千里马是可以找到的。

母凭子贵

2009-11-10T23:28:00.000+08:00

母凭子贵，很多所谓的＂价值投资者＂都很喜欢用这方法来投资，随手拈来成功的例子有

１。PPB 凭 Wilmar 而闻风而起
２。Batu Kawan 凭 KLK 而身价水涨船高

其实这方法是我不什么喜欢的之一，原因很简单－那就是＂母＂公司的 cash flow 一般来说都不是很强，靠的就是子公司的股息，而我比较喜欢 cash flow 强的公司。

今天的 HLFG 何尝不是这样呢，拥有６４。３％的 hong leong bank 已多过 HLFG 的市值了。里面还没包括 hong leong assurance，hong leong capital 等。。。

前几天，有报道说 HLBB 和 HLFG 要利用 tax reserve 来回馈股东，这是要符合以后的 single tier dividend system，对于这报道我眼睛一亮，不过又对透明度不高的 hong leong group 有所戒心。

投资就是如此，一直的在衡量风险和回酬，在找平衡点。

再谈投资策略２

2009-11-08T17:09:00.000+08:00

金融风暴已过了一年，看回这一年的投资决定，虽谈不上是完美，但也不算差。股市跌到非常吓人，周围的人和专家都说是百年难得一见的经济大萧条，都纷纷说不可进场，这根本是无底洞，风险太大了，有的甚至说大马应会跌到６００点。而我还是采取人弃我取的策略，反向的策略。

我把资金投入了３个不同的股票分别是大众银行（Public Bank），Tanjong 和 Hartalega。压得最重的是大众银行，其次是 Tanjong，压的最少的则是 Hartalega。但回酬结果则是 hartalega 最多，public bank 和 tanjong 却不分上下。我最先买入 public bank 原因很简单，它是 bursa malaysia 里最好，最强，可信度最高的公司，如果它都有问题，那大马的经济已经不堪设想了。

接着再买 tanjong，在这非常时期我选择了稳定性高投资策略，现金流（cash flow）是企业的命脉。Tanjong 很符合这前提，power plant 和万字业提供了强劲的现金流，它也有提供了不错的股息。这时候生存比激进更重要，所以买了 Tanjong。

最后买的是 hartalega，策略是用＂便宜＂的价钱来买高成长的股票。这也符合 warren buffett 说的用 ben graham 的方法来投资 philip fisher 说的公司。只有在这非常时期才会有这种机会。hartalega 的生产效率，产品创新，nitrile glove 的 low cost producer 是不容忽视的。

散户什么优势呢？

2009-10-10T15:36:00.000+08:00

散户在投资股票上倒底占有什么优势呢？？我问过了不少人，但却没有答案。有些甚至说散户根本没有优势，劣势就有一大把。我们身为散户，资金不比投资机构，资讯也不够快和多，有不能出席 analyst briefing，我们的确是没有优势。如果是这样我们不就一直处于挨打，输多于赢，或是赚永远不比他们多。

想了又想，我的看法是散户只可以在时间上占有优势，对是时间，不是时机。投资机构需要在短期里作出成绩来证明他们的确是物有所值，投资者可以相信他们，他们的投资多数会是 short term oriented，但散户却只要向自己交代。

如果说我们的优势只是时间那该如何作呢？第一，买股票不可以借钱，因为借钱将把你的优势转为劣势，利息的数目和在不该卖的时候卖将让你吃不消。

第二，买高成长的股票，只有高成长的公司可以在时间一长下提高它的价值。成长股，时间越久，内在价值越高，你赚钱的机会越高。尽量不要买低 PE 而不会成长的股票，因为在时间上你不会占有任何优势，你还是要等别人愿意用更高 PE 来买你手上股票的前提上才可以赚钱，那你永远是被动多于主动。高成长的公司，在时间一久后你越有主动权。

再谈投资策略

2009-10-03T16:47:00.000+08:00

最近电脑有问题一直都没法上网。

很多人都以为我在一些定义上打转，浪费时间，应该更专注在选股上，但我不是。我只是在一些的投资理论给于自己的看法，之前的帖已有提到，我看到了有太多人对价值投资的误解，对 warren bufett 的误解，无论是在理论上或者是实践上。我是个很注重实践的人，明白和了解并不够，更要把所学用在投资上才行。

如果只谈选股不谈策略，对我来说我根本不知道自己要的是什么。要买的是高股息？高成长？被低估？我如何建立本身的投资组合？我知道市场是高度波动的，但却没有投资策略？？我明白游戏规则但没有作出调整？我的投资组合都是高股息的股票，那我又如何打败市场？我知道市场已没有理性，但却没有退场策略，一味的 100％投资？？

长期投资

2009-09-11T13:59:00.000+08:00

之前我说长期投资不一定等于长期持有，那长期投资又何解呢？

比方说，一个投资者的策略是在别人 huha huha 的时候减持股票的投资，在股市调整时增加股票的投资（看之前一帖）。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

再说，如果一个投资者的策略是专买一些高确定性（high certainty or high probality）的股票，然后在股价升到＂合理价＂后卖。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

再说，如果一个投资者的策略是购买某一间公司的成长期（part of the business life），然后在它的成长期后卖。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

如果一个投资者的策略是长期持有＂一流的公司＂，这也是长期投资。

我的看法是，以上说的都是长期投资的策略，不单单是长期持有。因为你长期持有的结果有可能就是长期持有某些＂二三流的股票＂，而不是长期投资。根据 ben graham，投资的定义是＂保本＂和合理的回酬。

投资在确定性高的股票上

2009-09-11T13:41:00.001+08:00

投资在确定性高的股票上（buy on certainty）

这也是简单的价值理论，但如何用呢？很多人都会把时间花在往年过去式的成绩单，然后就终结说历史会重复。这可能是对可能是错的。

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

去年（１／１／２００７）百沙逻（LDP）大道，根据和约会涨价，涨幅会是１。５０的４０％。，也就是６０sen，确定性很高。很多人都知道，但有多少人会买呢？？当时的股价大概是２。７０，用discounted cash flow 算算，应该值得４。００，当时离涨价只有半年，机会很高。非常低的风险，买得过，结果有３０％的回酬。

几年前，bank negara 要银行（bank）和金融（finance）公司合并，public bank 宣布用１.６NTA 私有化 public finance。当时手上有 public finance，所以有留意这项发展。当 public finance 被私有化，我开始留意另外一间 finance 公司－ AMFB。当时的 AMFB 只在１.0 NTA 交易（４。００），如果AMMB 同样用１.６NTA 私有化 AMFB，那不就是有６０％的回酬。如果 AMMB 在两年里（最坏的打算）私有化 AMFB，也会有３０％的回酬。这是另外一个确定性高，低风险的投资。结果一年里已发生了。

几年前 malakoff 在建着 tanjong bin 发电厂，建好后盈利会增加一倍，确定性很高。当时 malakoff 以从５。００＋＋起到７。００＋＋了，但算算一下，在 tanjong bin 发电厂建好后，malakoff 应该值得１４。００＋＋，另外一个确定性高，低风险的投资。但人算不如天算，MMC 用１０。３５私有化 MALAKOFF。

-------------------------------------------------------

这是我去年在佳礼的一发表

股市的调整

2009-09-07T08:58:00.000+08:00

有学者曾经对道琼斯指数做过研究，发现它每三到五年就会面对调整，每 10－12 年就会有一大调整，而且调整的原因多不一样。如果你要长期投资，你就要有心理准备面对这每三到五年的调整，还有每 10－12 年的大调整。讲来讲去也逃不了， ben graham 说的 market fluctuation。

看回 bursa malaysia，那又不何尝不一样呢？？

如果我们知道这讯息／结论是可靠的，那我们应该不理它呢，还是要利用它呢？？

长期投资 = buy ＆ hold ？？

2009-09-04T09:38:00.001+08:00

长期投资 = buy ＆ hold （长期持有）？？

很多人都以为长期投资就是等于长期持有，长期持有就是等于长期投资。讲讲两下就搬出 warren buffett 的投资例子，什么 cocacola，geico，wells fargo 等等。你若再问为什么 warren buffett 会买这些公司，他们就说是这些公司拥有 economic franchise，有的是拥有品牌啦，有的是 low cost producer 啦....等等。你若再问下去，那你就得不到答案了。难道就只是这些原因使到 warren buffett 长期持有这些公司？

试问以上有那些公司是没有历经所谓的危机，风暴的历史？那一些没有历经悠长的时间考验？而且危机后还可以持续成长？

试问 bursa malaysia 有几多间公司符合这些条件？？

还有就是当我们学那些投资大师的学说时，不要单单看表面，应该更上一层的想和问。

买股票是不是要会很多投资理论？

2009-09-03T16:54:00.001+08:00

买股票是不是要会很多投资理论？我想不少人都曾经这样想过。对我来说，你懂几多东西并不是阻止你在股市里赚钱的主要因素，反而是你清楚的知道你会几多东西更重要。

如果你只买你清楚的知道股票，那你赚钱的几机会就大大的提高了。你只要作一点功课，或问问人，倒底那几间公司是上市超过二十年而且每一年都赚钱的。你得到的答案可能没有超过５个，包括 public bank 和 maybank。只要你每等三四年股票调整（以后再谈这话题）的时候买，然后持之以恒，时间一久你将会打败市场和赚钱。这方法很简单，但做得到的会有几人呢？如果你是用这策略，那你是不是要会很多投资理论呢？

如果你清楚的知道某一类的股票，长期以来都是派高股息，你只要持之以恒的买加上用股息再投资，你也可以赚钱。如果你是用这策略，那你是不是要会很多投资理论呢？

很多人都会认为懂很多投资理论的人一定是赚很多钱，这是个错误的想法。可以长期的在股市里赚钱的人是那些清楚的知道他会几多东西的人，然后用他懂的赚钱方法，持之以恒，就可以赚钱了。

重点是你要清楚的知道你会几多东西，加上用你懂的赚钱方法，就够了。一个朋友问，为什么我们买来买去都是这些公司，我说因为我们只了解这些公司，还有我们用的方法还可以赚钱，那需不须要去用我们不懂的方法来买我们不了解的公司呢？

当然懂的多的投资理论，可以帮助我们扩大投资范围和用不同的投资策略，但你必须要会用你懂的投资理论，不然的话只有纸上谈兵，讲的时候是价值投资，买的时候是 uemland 和 cepat wawasan。

bursa malaysia is a trading market

2009-09-02T13:40:00.000+08:00

bursa malaysia is a trading market，我相信很多人都有听过这句话。但这句话的可靠性到底有多高呢？

icapital 尝试要证明它不是，但 icapital 的成绩也只是一般。对于 icapital 我给它的 rating 也不是很高。

bursa malaysia 有太多良莠不齐的公司了，股价的上上下下通常都不是 fundamental driven，而是 theme play 或抄家的因素。如果你想用 buy ＆ hold 的策略在这些股票当然是行不通。我也看过大把说自己是 FA，包括什么.....众人......唯....独醒和冷眼，但讲到买股票说的却是 uemland，cepat wawasan...等等。我想有研究过价值投资的人都会觉得有一点不对劲。

如果说 bursa malaysia 是 trading market，不如说 bursa malaysia 有太多 trading stocks 了。

那么 buy ＆ hold 倒底管不管用呢？？你若用在对的 stock 那就管用，但用在 trading stocks 当然就不管用。重点是你如何找出那些适合 buy ＆ hold 的股票，如果你想用这策略。

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
JOY，这是不是你要的答案？

这次的危机

2009-09-01T23:20:00.001+08:00

问了一些朋友，在这次的危机中学会了什么？答案有很多，各种各样，每一个人的情况都不同。

有的说，没有子弹买了。原来他根本没有准备子弹来面对 market fluctuation。简单来说他没有照游戏规则来玩。忘记了 ben graham 说的 we must mentally and financially prepared to deal with market fluctuation。想起几年前我说过的一句话：股市里只有等待机会的人，没有制造机会的人。

有的说，发觉收入不够多元化，资产也不够多元化，不然的话可以趁机 relocate 本身的资产。或者有其他的收入来源也可以提供 cashflow 来买股票。但试问要做到收入多元化和资产多元化的资金又是几多呢？

有的说，资金是准备了但看看再说，以不变应万变，然后说应该还会再跌吧！每当遇到这问题，我的答案是：我不知道会不会再跌，但我知道风险比之前低了很多。

有的说，cash is king，对于这句话我也有在佳礼发表过。真正的说法应该是 cash is king provided you use it。不会利用 cash 那它肯定不是 king。

虽然我不是在最低水平买入，但跟现在比却是低了不少。

Minority Report

2009-08-30T00:15:00.001+08:00

在投资路上，我们会不停的看资讯，分析资讯，过滤资讯。但是有一种的资讯，报告，看法是要特别留意的，那就是 minority report。

原因无他，股票投资就只是少数人可以长期赚钱的地方。

margin of safety

2009-08-29T10:45:00.000+08:00

所谓的安全边际，很多人受了 ben graham 和 warren buffett 的影响，说自己买股票时很注重 margin of safety。但你如果问他什么是margin of safety，他们就会解释说如果某个股票是值得（内在价值）一塊，你若用五角钱买，那你就有50％的，就这样简单。

真的是那么简单吗？margin of safety 就只是这些 quantify－able （可以算得出的）的东东而已？？

如果你的 margin of safety 的定义包括以下（不可以算得出的）会不会更好一点呢？？
1. 管理层的素质（competency of the management）
2. 营利的素质（quality of profit）
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy

我的看法是这些 non－quantify－able 的东东也是你的 margin of safety，一般上这些还比你算得出的来的重要。

投资理念

2009-08-29T09:54:00.000+08:00

最近又有想继续写 blog 的想法，之前只写了几篇就不了了之了。就当是从新出发吧！

投资，五花八门，各有所长，怎样学也学不完。我也不想推销谁谁谁的主义，只是说说自己的看法。

想长期投资，一定要 develop 本身的投资理念，不然会很容易被时间和外在环境而影响。我们不能看到谁谁谁因为这样做赚钱就要跟，也不能看到谁谁谁因为那样做赚钱就认为那是明路一条。没有任何一法是通行无阻的，情况不同，环境不同，公司背景不同，管理层不同，个人的风险承担度不同，等等.......会影响投资的决策。

我本身的投资理念是受了 warren buffett，benjamin graham 和 philip fisher 的影响而形成的，尤其是 philip fisher。所以可以看到的是，我有兴趣的公司多少都有他的影子。

有时候矛盾是免不了，比如：
我相信长期投资但不坚持 buy ＆ hold

我相信长期投资但却会买卖短期 mispricing 的股票

我相信长期投资必须买好管理层的公司，但也会买二三流 mispricing 的股票

我个人认为 flexible 一点未必是坏事！